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The rise of Brics has become more visible in global affairs, with non-Western countries beginning to take a leading role in international diplomacy.

Countries such as China, SA and Brazil have all attempted to mediate an end to the Ukraine conflict. Now India is trying to broker an agreement. But can Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s efforts really produce a favourable outcome?

When Modi embarked on a rail journey from Poland to the war-torn Ukrainian capital of Kyiv in August it was historically significant, marking the first visit of an Indian prime minister to Ukraine since the country gained its independence in 1991. This lent a unique weight to a visit complicated by the strategic balancing act of Indian foreign policy. 

Though the trip was intended as a signal of India’s neutrality, Modi had already travelled to Moscow seven weeks earlier for his first official trip after his re-election campaign. Meanwhile, Russian navy chief Adm Alekseyevich Moiseyev had completed a four-day official visit to India just days before Modi’s visit to Ukraine.

Modi received a lot of criticism in the West for visiting Putin and for some in India is too close to the Kremlin to act as a genuinely neutral broker with respect to Ukraine. Yet Russia and India’s historical ties put India in a unique position to negotiate a peace deal and India remains one of only a handful of countries that have managed to constructively engage both sides. 

India has emerged as the single largest buyer of Russian oil, which gives it some leverage over the Kremlin that should not be underestimated. India could use this influence to bring Russia to the negotiating table. At the same time, India is sympathetic to Russia’s security concerns with respect to Ukraine joining Nato.

The military relationship between India and Russia has a long history. During the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971 then US president Richard Nixon sent the US navy’s Seventh Fleet to the Bay of Bengal in support of West Pakistan. The Soviets then dispatched a nuclear-armed flotilla to deter a US intervention. Russia’s presence also prevented China from opening a new front against India.

This historical context still informs India’s foreign policy stance and Russia still provides India with many of the weapons it needs to defend itself from China. In other words, India has its own reasons for maintaining close ties with Russia that have little to do with Ukraine, though these ties make India, which is also friendly to the West, a potential bridge between the warring parties.

As such, Modi’s visit to Poland, which marked the first visit by an Indian head of state in 45 years, signifies a shift in Indian foreign policy towards Central and Eastern Europe. Historically, New Delhi had been reluctant to engage with this region due to its close ties with Moscow. Consequently, relations with former Warsaw Pact members evolved slowly compared with India’s ties with the US and the EU.

The shift from a liberal-international order dominated by democracies to a multipolar world highlights the growing significance of non-Western narratives and their role in shaping global politics.

In this context India has taken a relatively balanced stance. It needs both Russian energy and Western capital to stimulate its economy and position itself as a leader among emerging markets while competing with China. Balancing these often conflicting interests can make it difficult for India to satisfy its many global partners, though these factors also make India’s efforts towards achieving peace in Ukraine a genuine foreign policy objective.

Ukraine has overshadowed other issues faced by the developing world. If India can help resolve the crisis it will win a great deal of respect from other developing countries that cannot afford the trade disruptions associated with the conflict and would prefer to see the billions deployed in military aid spent on much-needed infrastructure. As self-proclaimed vishwaguru (world teacher) and leader of the global majority, India hopes to play a constructive role in this regard. 

The shift from a liberal-international order dominated by democracies to a multipolar world highlights the growing significance of non-Western narratives and their role in shaping global politics. And yet despite India’s best intentions the effectiveness of a peace process will still be heavily influenced by the West.   

The summit on peace in Ukraine held in Switzerland earlier this year serves as an example. The event proved totally ineffectual because it was unable to bring both parties to the negotiating table. India’s decision to attend the event, despite its reservations about the format, reflected a commitment to peace and diplomacy, yet it chose not to sign the joint communique due to Russia’s absence. 

Though countries outside the traditional Western sphere are becoming more prominent in helping to resolve international disputes, the Swiss summit’s failure suggests countries such as India may struggle to achieve their diplomatic goals if Ukraine’s backers continue to encourage new offensives while discouraging dialogue with Russia.

This problem has been evident since the beginning of the conflict, when Turkey was considered close to facilitating a peace agreement between Moscow and Kyiv in April 2022. According to some reports the deal was derailed by former British prime minister Boris Johnson, who promised more weapons for Ukraine if it chose to keep fighting instead of signing the Turkish-brokered settlement.

Similarly, since the outbreak of the war no major Western leader has visited Russia to promote peace talks, the only exception being Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who went to Moscow without Brussels’ blessing. This diplomatic void has subsequently been filled by states such as India, SA, China and Turkey, which have all tried to bring the conflict to a close. 

Nevertheless, India’s approach appears to be having an impact. German chancellor Olaf Scholz has finally called for negotiations to end the war, while Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has proposed that the next peace-process summit be held in India. This provides some hope that the conflict can still be resolved through dialogue. However, until Moscow and Kyiv are talking to each other, a diplomatic breakthrough is unlikely to be achieved. 

• Shubitz is an independent Brics analyst.

READ MORE BY NICHOLAS SHUBITZ

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