MALIBONGWE MAKHONZA: Centre remains main theatre of political warfare, and the ANC knows it

Almost six weeks have passed since President Cyril Ramaphosa announced his new cabinet, enough time to assess whether the ANC was right in choosing to form a government of national unity (GNU).

As the party with the most votes in a hung parliament the ANC had the option to choose between three different coalition partners to achieve a majority coalition — the centre-right (DA), left-wing EFF or populist MK party.

To some it seems odd that the ANC opted for a path that has subjected the government to a bloated cabinet of unbundled ministries and redundant positions. The answer to why lies in the belief that elections, at least in modern-day democracies, are won at the centre of the political spectrum. 

The ANC knows that picking a single coalition partner would be to pick a side. A coalition with the EFF or MK party would appease the left, while a coalition with the DA would appease the right, but a GNU places the ANC right back in the centre of the political spectrum, which is where it loves to be.

By opting for a government of national unity the ANC seems to be prioritising a strategy that appeals to a broad base of voters. Historically, the party has prided itself in being a broad-based mass movement capable of mobilising voters from across the political spectrum.

It is the game of juggling and balancing political ideologies that the ANC has always enjoyed.

On the one hand, at the heart of the ANC’s organisational structure lies the tripartite alliance, formed in 1990 with union federation Cosatu and the SACP. 

Together they represent the majority of the SA working class, wielding influence and voting power. By aligning itself with these left-leaning organisations the ANC has successfully portrayed itself as the champion of workers’ rights and social equality, garnering support from those disillusioned with the prevailing socioeconomic disparities. 

On the other hand, as SA transitioned to democracy in the 1990s a shift within the ANC became evident. A group of liberal conservatives, led by influential figures such as Trevor Manuel, began to assert themselves. Emerging from the United Democratic Front, this faction advocated for a market-driven economy and embraced liberal principles such as individual freedoms and limited state intervention. 

The balance between these two opposing blocs is what landed the ANC its initial big electoral victories. By reconciling socialism within the confines of a liberal constitutional paradigm the party assembled a coalition of diverse interests, positioning itself in the centre to capture both sides of the political spectrum.

This pragmatic approach to politics can be seen as a strategic move to secure a larger share of the electorate. It is a political strategy that is built on the economic theory of the median voter. Lean too far to the right, and you lose the left; lean too far to the left, and you lose the right. But position yourself in the centre and you will have the fortune of both sides.

But the world has changed. Whether for the better or worse is for the individual to decide. One thing for sure is that the old model of juggling political ideologies no longer seems to work. Everything today is more binary and polarised.

Throughout its previous tenures in government the ANC has not been able to grapple with the issue of increasing unemployment. The economy is now on its knees. There is an urgent need for change in terms of what government does to grow the economy, but it remains unclear whether it is capable of taking the necessary steps.

There has also been a global rise in populism, and the ANC should not make the mistake of assuming it has passed SA by, or dismissing it as a fleeting trend. The general secretary of the SACP has already come out on several occasions to publicly call the ANC’s decision to snub the EFF and MK party a sell-out position. 

Tension is brewing within the tripartite alliance, and it could well be that the ANC will be forced to choose between left and right. Whichever it chooses, for the party to survive it will have to acknowledge that the populists have a point about our novel problems. It’s just that they don’t have the solution. 

• Makhonza is final-year BBusSc computer science student at the University of Cape Town.