BJORN LOMBORG AND JORDAN B PETERSON: The world is better off than you think

It is easy to believe the world is falling apart while watching the news. Climate change, political division, coups d’état, the global pandemic, Russia’s ruthless war on Ukraine, Hamas’ unjustifiable killings and the Middle East careering towards widespread violence.

Before panicking it may be worth stepping back to get some perspective. Media-driven fear demoralises us — particularly when young — and engenders terrible political decisions by crippling our ability to do better.

War is endlessly and eternally horrific. It is understandable and even necessary that the media spotlights current conflicts. But this can make us believe we’re living through unprecedented violence. Russia’s war indeed meant that battle deaths in 2022 reached a high for this century, but they are still low historically. Last year 3.5 in 100,000 people died due to war, below even the 1980s, and far below the 20th century average of 30 per 100,000. The world has in fact become far more peaceful.

This is little consolation to those living amid the world’s conflicts. But the data speaks to the problem with the constant barrage of context-free catastrophe and doom. Analysis of media content across 130 countries from 1970 to 2010 indicates that the emotional tone has dramatically and consistently become more negative. Negativity sells, but it informs badly.

The same pattern characterises climate change reporting. A pervasive and false apocalyptic narrative draws together every negative event — ignoring, almost entirely, the bigger picture. In recent months, for example, fires have been highlighted without indication that the annual burnt global area has been declining for decades, reaching the lowest-yet extent last year. Likewise, deaths from droughts and floods make headlines, but we don’t hear that deaths from such climate-related disasters have declined 50-fold over the past century.

The data shows what we all fundamentally know: the world has improved dramatically. Life expectancy has more than doubled since 1900. Two centuries ago, almost everyone was illiterate. Now, almost everyone can read. In 1820 almost 90% of people existed in extreme poverty. Now it is less than 10%. Indoor air pollution has declined dramatically, and its outdoor equivalent has also done so in rich countries. If we could choose when to be born with all the facts at hand, few would choose any time before now.

Constant barrage

This incontrovertible progress has been driven by ethical and responsible conduct, trust, well-functioning markets, the rule of law, scientific innovation and political stability. We have to recognise, appreciate and proclaim the value and comparative rarity of each of these.

The constant barrage of negative stories may lead us to imagine that our forward progress is about to end. However, the evidence at hand does not support this conclusion. The latest UN Climate Panel scenarios indicate that the average person will be 4.5 times richer by the end of the century than now.

Climate change will merely slow progress, such that the average person will be “only” 4.34 times as rich — by no means the end of the world. Yet fear pushes many to demand an inefficient diversion of hundreds of trillions of dollar to steer the global economy abruptly towards zero carbon emissions.

We need to foster an environment that challenges fearmongering and promotes optimistic yet critical thinking and constructive discussion regarding the future. We hope our new Alliance for Responsible Citizenship (ARC) will be of aid in this regard, bringing people of goodwill and good sense together from around the world to formulate and communicate a positive vision of the future.

To drive progress for the world’s poorest we should similarly focus on efficient, well-documented policies with enormous benefits. Working with more than 100 of the world’s top economists, one of us has helped to identify the best solutions to many of the world’s most insidious problems: basic tuberculosis treatment that will save 1-million people a year, land tenure reform that lets poorer people reap the benefits, education technology that can deliver three times better learning outcomes, and more.

These policies don’t make for catchy headlines, but they can do immense good: for a cost of $35bn annually they would save an astounding 4.2-million lives and make the poorer half of the world $1.1-trillion richer every year.

If we stop being fear-driven and instead look to the data and the bigger picture, we can see that the world is better than it was, and is likely to get better still. We have a responsibility to adopt the very best policies to keep moving ahead.

• Dr Lomborg is president of the Copenhagen Consensus and visiting fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. His latest book is ‘Best Things First’. Dr Peterson is professor emeritus at the University of Toronto and author of ‘Maps of Meaning’, ‘12 Rules for Life’ and ‘Beyond Order’.