NICHOLAS SHUBITZ: The Nord Stream mystery and why it may never be solved

The Nord Stream pipeline explosions in September, which cut the supply of Russian natural gas to Europe, have all the ingredients of a classic whodunnit. Opening with a mysterious incident, with limited information and a long list of suspects, we are forced to use deductive reasoning to identify the culprit.

Continuing investigations have failed to produce any concrete results, while the protagonists keep changing their stories. Without a famous detective to solve the case and obtain a confession, readers will have to decide for themselves who the guilty party really is.

On September 26 2022 the Nord Stream pipelines, built to carry natural gas from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea, were rendered inoperable by three huge explosions. The Western press immediately blamed the Russians, who had invaded Ukraine six months earlier. The Russians, of course, blamed the West. Neither side had any evidence in support of its claims. Investigations were undertaken by the surrounding countries, but no results have been made public and the mystery remains unsolved.   

Four months later, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist, Seymour Hersh,  published a provocative article claiming the US planned and executed the destruction of the pipelines with help from the Norwegian navy, and Western media outlets suddenly changed their tune. The destruction of the $20bn Swiss consortium-owned pipelines was the work of pro-Ukrainian saboteurs, we were subsequently informed, though both the German military leadership and the Ukrainian government were reluctant to endorse this view.  

The initial explanation was that Russia had destroyed the pipelines to put pressure on European countries that were supporting Ukraine by pushing up energy prices. The Russians, on the other hand, argued that this made little sense considering that in doing so they would be giving up all the gas export revenues the pipelines provided. The Russians accused the British and/or Americans of blowing up the pipelines to stop Germany from backtracking on sanctions and its military support for Ukraine. Both sides argued that only a state actor could have managed such a sophisticated operation, involving expert diving teams and high volumes of explosives within Nato-controlled waters.  

Hersh, an American, claimed the sabotage was a covert operation conducted by the US and Norway on the orders of US President Joe Biden. Biden had, after all, told reporters some months before that the Nord Stream supplies would be stopped if Russia invaded Ukraine, giving credence to this version of events. The US operation was allegedly carried out to ensure continued German support for the war against Russia and to ensure the EU stopped purchasing Russian energy and thereby funding its war on Ukraine. Although the EU is still Russia’s biggest customer for energy exports, US liquid natural gas exports to Europe have soared since the natural gas pipelines were destroyed.   

According to Hersh, US Navy divers planted explosives on the pipelines during a Nato exercise in June 2022 — the perfect cover — and detonated them remotely two months later using a sophisticated electronic buoy. The White House rejected this version as “completely false and fictitious”. Meanwhile, the Russian media ran with the story, condemning the US and its allies for covering up their crime while noting that the US suspiciously vetoed a resolution in support of a UN investigation into the blasts.  

But that was not the end of the story. In another twist major newspapers such as The Times (UK), The New York Times (US) and Die Zeit (Germany), published new reports that a “pro-Ukrainian group” was behind the sabotage, a significant departure from initial claims that only a state actor such as Russia could have pulled off such a complex operation. Anonymous sources emphasised that no British or US nationals were involved, according to the latest reports.  

The Russians were unimpressed. Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov called it “shameful” for journalists to try to blame Ukraine for the attack, while former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev ridiculed Western media reports, saying they were intended to deceive their European audience. Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov suggested these articles were published to divert attention from Hersh’s damning report. 

Medvedev went so far as to characterise the most recent reports as a “B movie” and question the supposed saboteurs’ ability to perform an operation requiring two tonnes of explosives from a sailing boat “before disappearing into the sunset” without being noticed by anyone “in a sea full of Nato ships and international surveillance systems”.

The former Russian president (who is considered to have enjoyed relatively warm relations with the West compared with Putin) also questioned the initial claims of Russian involvement being so quickly dropped, and why the EU was still arming Ukraine if Ukrainian terrorists had destroyed critical European infrastructure.  

German defence minister Boris Pistorius has avoided answering questions about the potential effect of the Nord Stream sabotage case on Western military aid for Kyiv if it is found that pro-Ukrainian groups were involved in the pipeline blasts. Pistorius said Germany would wait for confirmation before making a decision. He dismissed the claims presented in the latest reports as “hypothetical”, suggesting the unlikely story may simply be an attempt to frame Ukraine in a false flag attack.  

Denmark, Sweden and Germany have informed the UN Security Council that their investigations are still on. The Russians have complained that they have not been permitted to join the investigations or conduct one of their own. Asked for his take, Ukraine’s defence minister said the latest reports were a compliment to his special forces, even while denying Kyiv’s involvement. He expressed confidence that the official investigations would provide a detailed account of what really happened.  

In summary, six months of investigations have produced no concrete results and still continue. Russia and the West blame each other, claiming only a state actor could have undertaken such a technically challenging covert mission. That was until a notable US journalist pinned the blame on the US,  which then changed its story to blame Ukrainians. Germany remains uncertain, Ukraine’s government denies any involvement, and no-one has confessed.

It seems the Nord Stream Mystery may never be solved, and readers will have to decide for themselves who was behind it. 

• Shubitz is an independent Brics analyst.