LENIAS HWENDA: Can global leaders futureproof the global economy against health shocks?

A week or two ago a CNN report stated that 2022 was the hottest year in the last decade. It outlined the impact of climate change on Europe, the US and Asia but omitted Africa, one of most severely affected regions. More than 76-million people in the greater Horn of Africa and Sahel are facing extreme hunger and famine due to severe droughts and floods.

Such omissions render the plight of millions of Africans affected by climate change invisible to the world. The plight of Nokulunga Manake and her two children buried alive under the rubble of her collapsed home during SA’s KwaZulu-Natal floods came to mind.

“I thought the world was ending. I didn’t think we would survive,” Manake said after her harrowing experience. As global leaders met in Davos with climate change on the agenda it was important to highlight that climate change is affecting Africans in cruel ways, just how much it is impacting the continentand what is at stake for the world.

The terrors of extreme weather are now the lived reality of millions of Africans. In 2022 SA experienced one of its deadliest disasters in a century. Extreme rainfall triggered devastating floods in KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape. It destroyed homes, displaced thousands of people and took many lives.

In recent years more African countries have experienced similarly devastating extreme weather driven by climate change. They are occurring with alarming frequency. Between 2011 and 2021 Africa recorded 25% more climate-related events compared with the previous decade.

In East, South and Central Africa flooding is the most prevalent disaster. Cyclone Idai, the worst natural disaster to hit Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe in two decades, caused unprecedented devastation to communities. Six weeks later Mozambique was pummelled by Cyclone Kenneth. The stress of these crises has been unrelenting as vulnerable countries such as Mozambique are hit repeatedly.

The human toll is immeasurable. Homes, schools, clinics and hospitals razed. Millions of people have been displaced, left vulnerable to waterborne illnesses such as cholera, dysentery and malaria, and in desperate need of nutrition, safe water, sanitation and health services. In Mozambique alone 1.85-million people needed humanitarian support and access to life-saving treatments for injuries and waterborne diseases. Thousands of children needed vaccination against preventable diseases such as measles and treatment for acute malnutrition.

Nearly all climate crises in African countries are accompanied by health threats of increasing complexity. In the last two decades climate-related health emergencies accounted for more than half of public health events. Water-borne diseases contributed 40% of climate-related health emergencies between 2011 and 2021.

The frequency of disease outbreaks in the Africa region is set to increase over the next decade, with soaring cost of resolving them and a spiralling effect on economies. The climate crisis, health crisis and economic crisis are now inextricably linked. Amid soaring debt, can African economies and health systems adequately prepare for this threat? How will this affect the whole world?

We can expect climate-driven changes in rainfall patterns, temperature and humidity to worsen the prevalence, patterns of spread and transmission of vector-borne diseases. To date, vector-borne diseases such as yellow fever account for 28% of climate-related health emergencies. Zoonotic diseases are the third most prevalent.

The global burden of malaria deaths (90%) is concentrated on the African continent. The geographic scope of high-risk malaria zones will expand, causing a 15% increase in malaria deaths between 2030 and 2050 and reversing the 26% decline in malaria deaths.

Starvation and chronic malnutrition will worsen on the continent because more frequent droughts will devastate crop yields and livestock. Communities in Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia are facing the worst food crisis in a decade. Without water Africa’s claim to 65% of the world’s remaining arable land will be of no benefit. Water bodies will recede as rivers and lakes dry, reducing hydroelectric output and worsening energy insecurity. The need to control scarce resources such as water will elevate the risk of conflict.

Africa may have made the least contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, but the wrath of climate change will not spare it this existential threat. Covid-19 has shown us what is at stake. Without health security there can be no economic security in Africa. African leaders must urgently figure out how to prevent the downward spiral of an already catastrophic situation. Prevention and mitigation will be key, and with the environment, human health and animal health being inextricably intertwined, would need to be considered as one.

The threat may be local for Africans, but the risk of spread and escalation remains global. Infections prevalent in the global south will increasingly encroach northwards. This is already happening. Climate-related health crises are a concern for the whole world. The global climate response must therefore integrate solutions for tackling climate-related health crises.

At the same time, global leaders must honour their commitments to reduce emissions. The IMF economic price tag of the Covid-19 pandemic on the global economy by 2024 is $12.5-trillion. Let us hope this is enough to persuade global leaders that future-proofing the global economy against health shocks lies at the very heart of human survival on this planet.

Hwenda is founder and CEO of Medicines for Africa.