NICHOLAS WOODE-SMITH: Sworn enemies or unlikely bedmates?

We often expect the opinions and perceptions to be much like our own. We paint people with a similar brush, forgetting that we come from quite different backgrounds and contexts. We are all trapped in bubbles, often informed by media that already agree with us.

Political surveys that seek to observe, track and discover the political perceptions of voters are therefore important to burst this bubble and expose us to how fellow citizens actually think about the state of SA’s politics.

The Social Research Foundation undertook an extensive such survey in July. It was conducted by phone, comprising a sample of 3,204 randomly selected people who represent the country demographically and regionally, with a margin of error of 1.7%.

The survey asked respondents to associate parties with a particular word or phrase. The findings don’t necessarily predict voting outcomes but are meant to represent the perceptions of voters and how they view our political parties.

Service delivery

The DA leads voter perceptions when it comes to service delivery, with 36.6% of respondents believing the party is best in this area. That aligns with the DA’s brand and track record; its stronghold, the Western Cape, is undeniably SA’s best-run province. And DA governance in municipalities in other provinces is usually followed by improved standards of service delivery.

Surprisingly, the ANC comes in a close second, with 32.8% of voters seeing it as best at providing service delivery. The party’s record of failing municipalities, crumbling infrastructure and failing to keep the lights on might have been expected to damage this perception more — but it seems a perception of ANC competence remains in a large proportion of voters.

That may be due to a sense that there are no acceptable alternatives: ANC supporters may not think the ANC is good at service delivery, but perceive that there are no other parties they would be prepared to vote for. Or it may be that the present ANC administration has performed better than previous ones in providing housing, electrification and other basic services that were not provided to all during the apartheid years.

The EFF (12.1%) and ActionSA (4%) trail well behind on this metric. That may be due to EFF not having done much governing on its own and therefore hasn’t proven its chops. ActionSA also has no real track record since its forays into local politics have so far resulted in unstable coalitions that hobbled service delivery, and it prevented a competent city manager being appointed in Johannesburg.

Clean governance

The DA also has a substantial 32.7% of respondents viewing it as the least corrupt party. The ANC comes a relatively distant second at 19%. The DA markets itself as being about clean governance and fighting corruption, and it appears to have succeeded, through both branding and performance, in instilling this in many voters’ psyches.

The ANC, on the other hand, has a reputation as a corrupt entity. It is lucky to still have 19% of voters still believing in its ability to curb corruption.

Good policies

The DA and ANC are in effect tied when it comes to perceptions of their policies, at 29.5% and 28.6% respectively. But it’s not clear whether SA is split between DA and ANC policies or voters simply consider them to be interchangeable. People have accused the DA of being “ANC-lite” before, an accusation that has at times seemed true but is clearly untrue in other areas.

The problem with measuring perceptions of policies among SA voters is that we are severely lacking in political education. Voters seldom know what parties stand for, and what those policies actually entail. What’s interesting about this result is the DA and ANC lead the pack in terms of policy support.

Accountability

The DA leads at 33.6%, with the ANC coming in at 26%. The DA has a reputation for enforcing accountability from officials in the areas it governs, demanding accountability from the governing party where it doesn’t, and even holding its office-holders and leaders to account. Unlike the ANC, when DA officials commit crimes or behave poorly they are generally taken to task by the party.

So while the ejection of black leaders such as Mmusi Maimane and Lindiwe Mazibuko have been painted by some observers as racist, many voters (of all demographics) seem rather to see it as the DA being willing to hold even their own leaders to account.

It is apparent that the ANC doesn’t do this. Officials guilty of crimes and corruption often hold on to their jobs, and failure at one’s job is by no means a reason to be demoted or fired. Still, there is a perception by more than a quarter of voters that the ANC demands accountability.

ActionSA is the big loser in this category, possibly due to its size and being new, but possibly also that it is not seen as a democratic organisation that enforces accountability but as an absolutist organisation run by Herman Mashaba and Michael Beaumont. There is no room for accountability when only a handful can be in charge.

Racist

In the first negative category the EFF leads at 35.4%. The party is constantly making waves with accusations of racism, racist songs and racist statements, and voters recognise this.

Surprising for some, the DA comes in second with 26.6%. The party is still seen by many as a white one;  accusations that the DA will bring back apartheid still resonate with many voters. Still, that perception is not as dominant as the recognition that the EFF is racist.

Surprisingly, ActionSA did not feature as racist among any voters. This may be because it is still relatively new and small, but perhaps — more worryingly — it is because South Africans don’t view xenophobia as a form of racism.

ActionSA has made waves with its uncompromising stance against undocumented immigrants, and some of its supporters have even called for violence against foreigners via social media.

Hatred

The EFF is overwhelmingly seen as the worst offender when it comes to spreading hatred, with 51% of the vote, and the ANC a distant second at 19.5%.

The EFF’s modus operandi has always been to foment chaos and create controversy. It is constantly in the media for making racist statements or defending racist songs. Its branding is also blatantly violent: blood red, with a black-power fist clutching a spear.

Violent

Continuing from the previous category, the EFF has an even more overwhelming lead when it comes to voters seeing it as violent. About 69.2% of respondents viewed the party as a violent.

Coupled with racism and its spreading of hatred it is clear that the majority of voters view the EFF as a negative element in SA politics. This perception is supported by the party’s branding, statements and policies that call for the theft of property and violence against particular racial groups.

Broken promises

About 73.8% of voters consider the ANC to be inclined to break promises — an overwhelming number but one that it should come as no surprise. The party makes lofty promises every election cycle, holding out utopia for voters. Most now seem to understand that these promises won’t be kept.

Yet many people still vote for the ANC. Perhaps this is because holding on to hope is considered worth the risk of promises being broken. Or maybe the ANC holds a symbolic significance its supporters are unwilling to give up yet.

Selfish

The ANC is seen as overwhelmingly selfish — 55.7% of respondents. Politicians live in ostentatious luxury while voters starve. The media are constantly reporting on lavish parties by ANC politicians who spend exorbitant amounts on booze and fancy food; not to mention the luxury vehicles and blue-light brigades.

Little wonder, then, that more than half of voters believe the ANC only care about themselves.

Anti-poor

There is a general sentiment among voters that political parties don’t care about the poor, which is to be expected given that poverty is increasing in SA.

However, the ANC is considered most anti-poor — 39.5% of respondents — followed by the DA and EFF, which each received 20.1%.

Afterthoughts

In summary, the ANC is still popular despite its negative reputation. Simultaneously, voters don’t trust it, expect it to break its promises and to be corrupt, while also believing it to be decent at governing the country. There is a clear cognitive dissonance in the country.

Voters see the ANC as a negative element, but still cling to the idea that it can do good. Decades of governance, and even more decades previously as a liberator from apartheid, have ingrained in South Africans an intense loyalty towards the governing party.

The DA enjoys considerable trust among voters as a competent and clean governing party. But it has struggled to shake off the reputation that it is a predominantly white party that serves middle-class and white interests. Given SA's political culture, it may never shed that identity.

The EFF appears to have reached the limit of its support base. The majority of voters see it as dangerous and unethical. Its base of radical, young revolutionaries seems to have peaked and the party is unlikely to make gains in elections unless it makes substantial changes to its brand and message.  

ActionSA is still too new to judge. It doesn’t seem to have a substantial presence in the polls, negatively or positively. But where it does appear the suggestion is that it should work on perceptions of its accountability. It could start by democratising its internal structures and working on building stable coalitions rather than destroying them from within.

The DA and ANC clearly still lead the popularity contest, and most voters dislike the EFF and its radical, hateful message. That implies any coalition with the EFF is likely to mar the reputation of its coalition partner, while also ensuring an unstable coalition. The EFF thrive on chaos, and chaos is not what coalitions or SA need.

Voters generally approve of the DA and ANC. While the ANC has many negative points, the DA provides an alternative — or perhaps a potential partner. It is seen as a positive influence, so voters may well consider an ANC-DA coalition a decent compromise between the symbolic importance of the ANC and the demonstrated competence of the DA.

However, such a coalition will only be possible if the ANC can spawn a faction that would be willing to compromise and act for the good of the country.

• Woode-Smith is a political analyst, economic historian and author from Cape Town.