LEON SCHREIBER: DA now draws the most support in urban SA

In August the Social Research Foundation (SRF) released the findings of its latest research into SA’s political landscape. The poll was conducted among 3,204 randomly selected and representative registered voters, with a margin of error of 1.7%. Most media reports about the findings focused on the ANC’s national support hovering around 50% in the poll, about seven percentage points less than the governing party received in the 2019 national election. A significant chunk of the ANC’s lost support appears to have moved to the DA, which at 25% is five points up on its 2019 result.

But most reports missed what is perhaps the most significant result contained in the poll: for the first time the DA is now the biggest political party in urban SA. According to the SRF findings the official opposition is polling at 37% in urban areas — presumably defined as the country’s eight biggest metropolitan areas. In contrast, support for the ANC has slipped to just 33%, and the EFF remains stagnant at 11%.

The implications of this shift towards the DA for our country’s political future are potentially enormous. More than 67% of all South Africans live in urban areas, with this figure set to rise to 71% by 2030. This means whichever political party captures the hearts and minds of voters in the eight biggest cities will form the core of a new national political majority in SA.

In 2016 the ANC still got 47.7% of the vote in urban SA. And as recently as the 2021 local elections in November 2021 the party managed to scrape together enough votes to remain the biggest party in the cities. Just. In the 2021 election the ANC got 35% across the eight metros compared to the DA’s 34%. While the trend of ANC decline in urban areas has been clear for well more than a decade, the SRF’s polling marks a critical turning point. 

How did the DA manage to overtake the ANC? A big part of the answer is also contained in the SRF findings. The eight biggest SA cities are, generally speaking, vastly more demographically diverse than the rest of the country, which means cultivating a diverse support base is vital to securing the urban vote. Fortunately, the SRF poll also analysed the composition of different parties’ support bases. The results are striking, revealing that the DA is not only by far the most diverse political party in the country, but that no other political party is able to attract meaningful support from all of SA’s demographic groups.

When looking at the SRF findings by race group it is clear that black voters make up the biggest chunk of the DA’s support base. Out of the 25% of all voters who support the DA nationally, 32% are black. But the key to the DA’s urban growth is that it also attracts similarly substantial support from other groups: 31% of the party’s support base is coloured and 30% white. The DA also attracts the most Indian voters in the country, which adds another 7% to its base.

The uniqueness of the DA’s diverse support base becomes clear when comparing it to the bases of other parties. The ANC has clearly turned its back on diversity, with 99% of the party’s votes coming from black South Africans. It has become a racially exclusive political entity that does not reflect the aspirations of voters from all backgrounds who want a nonracial and inclusive future. Similarly, 93% of EFF voters are black. The DA attracts up to 16 times more coloured, white and Indian support than the ANC and EFF.

At the other end of the spectrum, but just as exclusive and nondiverse, are the Freedom Front Plus and ActionSA. Out of the 2% of voters who support the FF+, 84% are white. And out of the 5% of voters who choose ActionSA, 58% are white. The DA attracts five times more black support and 39 times more coloured support than ActionSA, as well as 25 times more black support than the FF+.

More than any other factor, it is because the DA’s support base organically reflects the diversity of urban SA that it has managed to supplant the ANC in the cities. The SRF findings clearly put paid to the widespread but false notion that the DA does not capture the hearts and minds of a diverse group of SA voters. The great irony is that all of the hard numbers make it clear that it is actually the other political parties, including the ANC, EFF, FF+ and ActionSA, that are failing to attract support across the demographic spectrum.

The simple truth is that the DA is a uniquely diverse political party in a country with a deeply divided past. That the party has managed to forge a support base that cuts across historical racial cleavages is not only worth celebrating — this fact has fuelled the DA’s success in overtaking the ANC in SA’s cities.

The future of politics belongs to the party that can best unite the increasingly diverse populations of our major cities, which bodes well for the DA. While other parties are trapped by their inability to break out of monochromatic racial boxes, the DA goes into the country’s increasingly urban future with the wind in its sails, having now supplanted the ANC in another crucial area.

• Dr Schreiber, a DA MP, is shadow public service & administration minister.