NICHOLAS WOODE-SMITH: Voters want a decent opposition coalition to replace the ANC

Voters know something many of our politicians don’t: the path to overthrowing the corrupt and incompetent ANC is not through a single, all-powerful opposition party, but through a coalition of co-operative and united parties.

In a recent survey and investigation conducted by the Social Research Foundation, Soweto residents of a ward where ANC votes declined to 31% from 59% and support for ActionSA rose to 22% from 12% spoke about their views of local and national politics. The findings were damning of the ANC, with residents speaking of corrupt politicians who make no effort to address any of the issues plaguing the municipality.

While voters in previous elections were hesitant to stop voting for the ANC, fearing change and a return to apartheid, the most recent elections and by-elections have seen votes shift to opposition parties, notably ActionSA.

The report also found that voters believe a solution to many of their woes is a functional coalition government, and they would support one. But there is a crucial keyword here: functional.

Johannesburg is already run by a coalition government of various parties, and residents do not seem to feel there has been much change. They believe the coalition is an excuse by many politicians to blame one another for problems, play dirty politics and focus on personal agendas rather than the good of the city.

In particular, there is a fear that coalitions lead to parties sabotaging each other. Markedly, residents believe the EFF is an incompatible coalition partner and its inclusion will just lead to chaos in the coalition.

But despite all of this, according to the survey outcome, voters still want to see a coalition replace the ANC. However, this won’t happen as long as parties keep voting against each other, fighting over trivial personal vendettas and sabotaging the efforts of each other to govern.

Unfortunately, the Johannesburg coalition is not doing much to win the hearts and minds of its voters — it is rather continuing the trend of ANC governance while being plagued by egos and self-sabotage.

What is clear is that the ANC’s grip on Soweto is slipping. But there is fear of change and a distrust of many opposition parties. Many voters still don’t trust the DA, considering it a white party that may bring apartheid back. This is a fundamental problem the DA will have to face if it wishes to win elections within Soweto. The people just don’t understand or trust it.

They do seem to trust ActionSA, a party that has managed to make inroads into an ANC stronghold. We still need to see if ActionSA can deliver on its promises and prove to be better than the ANC administration, but it is a start — a start the DA has never truly been able to accomplish.

In the same way that ActionSA would probably never make inroads in Cape Town, the DA is unlikely to win an election in Soweto. And, honestly, this is fine. Both parties have their target audiences and identities. But what they do have in common is a need to supplant the ANC nationally. The best way to achieve this is a coalition government.

The ANC is a political hegemon, and no hegemon is ever toppled by a single party. It is overthrown by a concerted and united effort of many parties working together. This can be accomplished deceptively easily.

All the opposition parties need to do is realise that they can gain far more by working together and staying out of each other’s way than from stealing votes from one another and bickering.

The core ActionSA voter and the core DA voter look quite different. And when both parties recognise their own unique identities and stop trying to cannibalise each other’s votes they can start focusing on what they do best.

Rather than allies of convenience, opposition parties should see themselves more as a team. They all have different specialities and can help one another maximise their collective resources by focusing on, and prioritising, their own audiences.

A future functional coalition must be united. This means all parties need to share some essential values. One of these values can be as simple as a sincere desire to topple the ANC and replace it with a responsible government that seeks prosperity for all South Africans. But it has to be shared, which means parties such as the EFF may not be compatible coalition partners and should be excluded whenever possible.

What is clear from the results of the Social Research Foundation’s report is that the ANC’s support is flagging and an opposition coalition already has hypothetical support from many previous ANC voters.

All that needs to happen is for opposition parties to put aside their vendettas, bickering, egos and personal agendas and rather focus on pleasing their target audiences and uniting behind a common purpose.

• Woode-Smith is a political analyst, economic historian and author based in Cape Town.

Correction: August 17 2022
This column has been corrected to show that support for ANC in the ward referred to in the second paragraph fell at the expense of ActionSA, but the control of the ward didn’t change.