GARY RYNHART: Jobs and trade are essential tools in stopping wars

The shock across the world at the invasion of Ukraine is not just that it involves a nuclear-armed protagonist, it is because it is so rare for two states to go to war. Conflicts between states have almost ceased to exist. Most conflicts today are within states (civil wars) and mostly don’t involve the number of casualties of state-to-state warfare.

It is true that there are more conflicts globally now than at any point in the past three decades, but they are producing fewer casualties. In the immediate years after World War 2 about half a million people died annually through direct violence in wars. Today casualty numbers are closer to 80,000 a year.

Wars are caused by grievance, usually along ethno-nationalist lines or socioeconomic ones. For grievances along ethno-nationalistic lines, responses can be more complex or even appear impossible. Ethno-nationalistic conflicts are much more intractable.

War in Ethiopia has abated for now, but does anyone think the issues are resolved? Lebanon’s sectarian makeup produces civil wars on an almost cyclical basis. The Palestine-Israeli conflict fits the intractable basket too. The situation is best summed up by the political analyst Marwan Bishara, who said: “As long as the Palestinians do not lose, Israel cannot win.” In my own country, Ireland, divisions run back 400 years. What can seem like ancient history to some is current policy to others.

Responding to socioeconomic grievances is more straightforward. Two things help greatly: jobs and trade. It is often assumed that even in conflict zones generating a virtuous circle of economic growth leading to poverty reduction will in turn contribute to peace, with the private sector as a critical driver. That is not necessarily the case, and the direct parallels between poverty (unemployment and lack of economic opportunities) and militancy and armed conflict are somewhat contested.

Lack of economic opportunities can be a crucial driver of conflict, but so can other issues such as ethnic, cultural or national identity and belonging. Grievances can also be amplified if perceived benefits are not seen to be shared fairly or if outstanding issues, particularly concerning land and natural resources, are affected negatively.

However, what is incontestable is that jobs certainly help and are an irrefutable conflict prevention tool. My employer, the International Labour Organization (ILO) was founded on this very premise. It was established in 1919 by the Treaty of Versailles as the warring factions of World War 1 sought to build an institution that could act as a bulwark in preventing social fissures from breaking into open conflict. Beneath the foundation stone of the ILO’s main office in Geneva lies a document on which is written: Si vis pacem, cole justitiam — If you desire peace, cultivate justice.

The second response is trade. As the European continent emerged out of the chaos of World War 2 visionary politicians put in place an embryonic mechanism to make wars impossible. It was initially called the European Coal & Steel Community, today it’s called the EU. The idea was to link the economic fortunes of two countries that had fought three wars in the previous 70 years (France and Germany). One of the founders, French foreign minister Robert Schuman, stated that by collectively linking economic interests “it would make war not only unthinkable but materially impossible”. It has largely worked.

Here in SA it’s safe to say the threat of military incursion in the short term is unlikely. The greatest threat to stability is internal. SA’s middle class of about 30% is far too small. The middle class matters as it has a major stake in society. It acts as a critical brake against any political or economic recklessness because it has too much to lose. Expanding the middle class in SA is the best way to protect the state against this threat. That means more focus on enterprise creation, expansion and consequent job creation. To do this trade helps.

The African Continental Free Trade Area agreement has the potential to boost intra-African production, intra-African consumption and intra-African export. In the next 25 years Africa’s manufacturing sector is expected to double in size. There are huge opportunities and SA can be at the vanguard.

Geopolitics has also changed the calculus. As Africa emerges from the transformative experience of Covid-19, arguably the most disruptive impact on the world of work since the Industrial Revolution, there is a real opportunity to boost intra-African trade from its miserly rates, and with it create more jobs. If not now, when?

• Rynhart is senior specialist in employers’ activities with the ILO, based in SA.