New York — I have a friend who works in the New York City department of education’s Covid-19 “situation room” — tracing cases, informing contacts and so on. She is really good at her job, which is why I was surprised to hear her make a strange statistical assertion: since the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are 95% effective, one in 20 vaccinated people are going to get Covid-19.

That’s wrong, dangerously so. And given that an expert who works in the area every day can make such a mistake, I figure it is worth some explaining...

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