As 2020 proved beyond doubt, new tear predictions can be of limited value. But left field shocks such as this year’s devastating pandemic were less “unpredictable” than many now make out. Sometimes they’re just hiding in plain sight.

In January — before the Covid-19 crisis unfolded — the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) annual global risks survey put the threat of infectious diseases as “high impact” but relatively low “likelihood”...

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