There were more power cuts in 2020 in SA, more gigawatt hours of load-shedding, than in any previous year. The next year will likely not be much better. What happens after then depends almost entirely on whether the government rethinks and revises its approach to electricity sector regulation, planning and investment.
As we approach our summer holidays we have had a welcome respite from Eskom supply interruptions, but SA does not have enough operational generation capacity and power cuts will return. Eskom estimates our power gap at about 4GW. The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research thinks it may be closer to 7GW. Essentially, we don’t have a large enough reserve margin, and significant, unexpected breakdowns of Eskom power units mean the lights will go off again, as happened in 2007, 2008, 2014, 2015, 2018, 2019 and 2020...
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