Almost 16-million people allowed back to work
New level 3 regulations mark an important strategic shift in the government’s approach
During the Covid-19 pandemic and response an important question from both a health and economic policy perspective is how many people are able to return to work as the lockdown is eased (and tightened). Policymakers will need to consider the likely implications for the spread of the virus.
In a recent working paper we estimated how many people would return to work, either at the workplace or at home, at the different levels of the lockdown, according to the five-level plan unveiled on April 26. Using a static analysis derived from industry subsectors matched to the five-level plan, we estimated that under level 5 of the original lockdown framework 40% of total employment was permitted, or 6.6-million workers. This rose to 55% (9.2-million) under level 4; 71% (11.8-million) under level 3; 94% (15.6-million) under level 2 and 100% under level 1. These figures are all benchmarked against employment levels in the fourth quarter of 2019, before any curbing of economic activity...
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