On Thursday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to “open the gates” to Europe for Syrian refugees temporarily housed in Turkey unless the EU stops its harsh criticism of his military operation against the Kurds of northern Syria. The threat is not new, though, and Erdogan is no more likely than before to make good on it. Instead, he will likely push the refugees in the opposite direction.

In March 2016, Turkey signed a readmission agreement with the EU allowing the Europeans to send any undocumented immigrants arriving from Turkey back to that country. In return, the EU offered €3bn in aid immediately, and another €3bn by the end of 2018. The deal was a key element in the chaotic but ultimately effective European effort to reduce the influx of asylum seekers from war-torn Syria and other Middle Eastern and African countries...

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