We find ourselves in an environment in which there is more to be worried about than usual, including an escalation of the China-US trade war, fallout from a no-deal Brexit and erratic or aggressive US Federal Reserve policy decisions.

Then for good measure we can add a dose of yield curve inversion in the US, a phenomenon that has been followed by a recession every time in the past 60 years, with just one exception in the late 1960s.

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