Risks demand portfolios aiming at resilience and structural growth
Escalating trade wars around the globe, high debt, political uncertainty and potential contagion from events in Turkey and Argentina pose destabilising threats to investors.
Investors seem to be facing an endless list of global risks: the destabilising threat of escalating trade wars around the globe; high levels of debt across government, corporate and household sectors; political uncertainty; and potential contagion from recent events in Turkey and Argentina. The initial boost to US growth from tax cuts earlier in 2018 is fading. In addition, while we believe global debt levels and late-stage cycle conditions are likely to hold back any significant increases in inflation or interest rates, monetary conditions are tightening in the short term as central banks start to remove liquidity from the system. The implications are far-reaching for companies and asset prices. The bond markets are already reflecting a more uncertain outlook as yield curves flatten and credit spreads widen. Elsewhere, there has been volatility in currencies and commodity prices. In equities, cracks are showing in some high-profile US technology stocks that have led what has been a...