The recent hotly contested municipal by-elections in Metsimaholo, Free State, were significant for being the first that the disenchanted South African Communist Party (SACP) contested separately from its old ANC alliance partner. While the results are specific to a particular context, the extrapolations of the implications of prevailing sentiment are profound for what the ANC might face in national and provincial polls. The polls provide a fascinating case study in shifting political sentiment. In the Metsimaholo by-election, 393 candidates representing 15 political parties contested the 21 ward and 21 proportional representation (PR) seats, with fierce lobbying by provincial and national leaders. The council was dissolved midyear after its "hung" council proved incapable of passing a budget.

The results have done little to meet the need for a coalition to govern Metsimaholo, control of which is still in the process of being horse-traded. But for analysts, ballot outcomes give...

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