We live in a world of big political personalities, "breaking news" and fast-moving events, but to understand how the world will change in 2018, we must look more closely at four important political trends developing beneath the surface. First, it is regional, not global, security that will matter most for war and peace. US President Donald Trump’s calls for an "America First" approach to US foreign policy inspired fear that he would dismantle alliances that took decades to build. His early provocative approach to Nato added to the worries. Yet, Trump has relied mainly on experienced men in uniform to set policy, with a result (the occasional tweet-storm aside) that’s not that different than we might have got from Hillary Clinton. The real change is in a more regional approach to security. For the foreseeable future, the US will remain the only country on Earth capable of extending military power into every region of the world. (The US continues to outspend China on defence by three ...

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