Sydney — Is Tesla’s Semi on the verge of doing to the trucking industry what the iPhone did to telecommunications? Probably not — but the decarbonisation of road freight may still upend both the logistics business and the oil industry. To see why, have a look at the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) estimates last week for future oil demand. Consumption by passenger vehicles, buildings, industry and generators has all but peaked, according to the agency’s scenario. By 2025, demand from cars and buses will increase by about 1.4-million barrels a day from 2015 levels — equivalent to about 1.5% of the global daily output of 92-million barrels. From there, it will began an inexorable decline. Demand growth will really depend on three sectors: petrochemicals; aviation and shipping; and road freight. As Julian Lee has argued in Gadfly previously, the petrochemicals part of that story — essentially, that use of plastics is set to grow dramatically in the coming decades — could already ...

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