GROWTH
SA has chance to make hay while the sun shines on global economy
Political catastrophe can lead to a national wake-up call such as in Argentina, but not yet in Venezuela
Historian CW de Kiewiet’s widely quoted ’40s aphorism that SA advanced politically by catastrophe and economically by windfall is apt, yet again. This observation raises the issue whether it is indeed possible to "advance" by political catastrophe. Perhaps what he intended is that political catastrophe can lead to a national wake-up call, such as has recently been seen in Argentina, but not yet Venezuela. Indeed, there have been times in the past when SA has come collectively to its political senses. With the current mood at a low ebb, many are hoping for just such a wake-up call. All eyes are now focused on the ANC’s elective conference in December, where the outcome appears binary. With politics in the balance, the question is what type of economic windfall may lie out there? The short answer is quite a good one. Over the past four decades, the global economy has averaged growth of about 3.5% per annum, albeit not without significant volatility. Still fresh in many minds is the gl...
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