Reporting back from the future: how scenarios will help with SA planning
Amid economic and political volatility, a series of books forecasts a range of scary and not-so scary possibilities
Events such as the 9/11 attacks, 2009 global financial crisis, Arab Spring, Brexit and election of Donald Trump continue to prove that traditional forecasting methods leave decision makers dangerously exposed to unexpected events. In 2017, The New York Times reported that the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index had reached a record high. Factor in SA’s volatile economic and political climate and the degree of uncertainty confronting South African decision makers is unparalleled. Into this cauldron, we have just released a new set of scenarios for SA in the form of a book titled A Time Traveller’s Guide to South Africa in 2030 (Tafelberg). The book is the second in a planned trilogy that began with A Time Traveller’s Guide to Our Next Ten Years, which was published in 2014. The third book in the trilogy is planned for 2020 – a year after the 2019 election. The books contain scenarios that explain what is happening in the country, why it is happening and what is going to happen n...