Recent events show President Jacob Zuma’s mastery of frog boiling — his ability to use the internal machinations of the ANC and civil society against themselves. Not to mention the fact that markets cannot cope with this level of political complexity in a global carry-hunting environment and seem to be giving the benefit of the doubt and buying carry until policy actually shifts. Investors have been left wondering (having presumed that the president’s power had diminished to the point of being a lame duck) how he had the ability to undertake a reshuffle, play the ANC at its own game and (likely) win the resulting fallout, and increase support for his faction going into the December conference. The recent reshuffle showed that SA is caught in a strange frame of internal reference, especially when it comes to the ANC, and this rubs off on investors. Viewed from afar, the reshuffle and subsequent outpouring of rage locally seemed rather odd. The president has broken no laws and did not...

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