New York — The consensus view is that the Trump rally is over. The interesting question is why. Stock prices are no longer rising. US bank shares (up about 30% from late last year) have plateaued. The VIX Index, an indicator of volatility, has risen sharply, though it remains below historical averages. US Treasury bond yields have fallen significantly, down about 0.3% from their highs in December 2016. Commodity prices have slumped. These developments have unfolded despite solid and largely unchanged economic conditions. So analysts have seized on alternative explanations for the gloom. One theory is that hopes for the new US administration have been dashed. President Donald Trump promised that, with the support of a Republican-controlled legislature, he would cut taxes, initiate large-scale infrastructure spending, reform the tax system, fix healthcare and reduce the regulatory burden on business. Trade issues would be addressed. The US would extract itself from foreign entanglemen...

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