US-Russian solution uses a poor definition of Syria’s civil war and will prolong it
PARIS — The agreement reached between the US and Russia to eliminate Syria’s chemical weapons ties the disarmament process to negotiations aimed at ending the country’s civil war. That is surely a sensible approach.Unfortunately, two major problems with the proposed Geneva-based process will prevent it from achieving its goal. But an alternative formula might just work.The first problem with the US-Russian approach is a failure to recognise the constraints facing the warring parties. The current regime — maintained for more than 40 years as a unitary, all-encompassing actor — has little leeway to offer concessions: there is no such thing as a part-time dictatorship. Any political agreement with the opposition would require the transfer of control of at least some political, security and economic resources that were previously controlled by President Bashar al-Assad’s family and its inner circle.A regime that is so heavily indebted to its supporters is highly unlikely to accept such ...
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