The government’s swift action in imposing a hard lockdown within weeks of SA’s first coronavirus case will have averted 16,000 deaths by the end of the year, according to an analysis by SA’s biggest medical scheme administrator, Discovery Health.

Its modelling projects 51,000 deaths from Covid-19 by the end of the year, a figure that would have been 25% higher if there had not been such stringent measures to curb transmission of Covid-19. Its mortality estimates are broadly in line with the Actuarial Society of SA, which said earlier this week that its latest model projects between 27,000 and 50,000 deaths from Covid-19 this year.

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