Cape Town deaths soar for second week as Covid-19 bites

The number of natural deaths recorded in Cape Town in the week to May 26 was about 25% higher than is usually seen at this time of year, according to the Medical Research Council’s (MRC’s) latest weekly death report.

It is the second week in a row that the MRC has reported a sharp rise in natural deaths in Cape Town, highlighting the city’s growing Covid-19 epidemic.

During the week to May 26, a total of 707 natural deaths were recorded in Cape Town. Based on previous trends, researchers would have expected to see about 560 natural deaths during this period, the director of the MRC’s burden of disease unit, Debbie Bradshaw, said.

As of Tuesday Cape Town had recorded more than 19,000 cases of Covid-19, far more than any other metropolitan area in SA. The city is home to more than 8% of the Western Cape’s about 23,000 reported cases, which account for two thirds of SA’s tally of 35,800.

Natural deaths are those caused by an infection or disease such as cancer, and exclude those involving an external cause such as road traffic accidents or murder.

The MRC researchers used death records from the department of home affairs to compare the weekly number of deaths from natural and unnatural causes to the trends observed in previous years. They used prior years’ trends to project the anticipated weekly deaths for provinces and metropolitan area, with an upper and lower bound.

The weekly number of deaths from natural causes in Cape Town was above the upper prediction bound of 640, which the MRC said indicated a statistically significant increase.

The number of deaths from unnatural causes was significantly lower during the lockdown compared to previous years, due to fewer traffic accidents and homicides, but had begun to increase as lockdown restrictions have eased, said the MRC.

The MRC’s weekly death analysis only covers people who have a SA identity number and excludes babies under the age of one year.

kahnt@businesslive.co.za