In the face of growing pressure from business and citizens, health minister Zweli Mkhize this week lifted the lid on the modelling work guiding the government’s response to the Covid-19 crisis.

For the first time on Tuesday evening the public was given sight of the projections from a consortium of experts convened by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), which indicate there could be as many as 3.7-million detected cases and between 40,000 and 48,000 deaths by November.

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