Stage 8 load-shedding on the cards, energy expert warns

An energy analyst has warned of an increasing risk of stage 8 load-shedding as Eskom scrambles to stabilise its coal-fired system and delayed the scheduled maintenance of a unit at its Koeberg nuclear plant.

The state-owned power utility on Wednesday implemented stage 6 power cuts after further breakdowns took the total amount of unavailable power to about 24,000MW, with unplanned outages accounted for just over 19,000MW. 

Koeberg Unit 1 was scheduled to go offline from Wednesday night for six months for maintenance, including refuelling and the replacement of its steam generators.

With a generating capacity of about 950MW, the shutdown would have been equivalent to a further stage of power cuts. According to Eskom’s latest update, Koeberg will now only be taken offline on Friday afternoon.

SA has a generating capacity of about 44,000MW. According to independent energy analyst Lungile Mashele the country uses about 29,000MW a day on average.

“To have more than 19,000MW unavailable due to breakdowns is shocking. We’ve never seen numbers like that,” he said. “Stage 8 will mean no electricity for 12-14 hours a day.”

Mashele said Eskom should review its outage schedule bigger power cuts have become a possibility, Mashele added.

“In 2008 when they came up with stages 1 to 8, I don’t think they ever thought we were going to get there,” he said. They need to revise that and be realistic with what is happening on the system and tell us what stage 12 or 15 will look like.

“When the [Eskom] board came in September they said they will evaluate what is wrong and come up with remedial action. What is their plan?”

Eskom said on Wednesday that stage 6 load-shedding will continue until 5am on Friday and then be reduced to stage 5. 

“We have 4,984MW on planned maintenance while 19,052MW is unavailable due to breakdowns. Due to the depletion of the budget to acquire diesel for the open-cycle gas turbines [which are normally used during peak demand], Eskom has been forced to preserve the remaining diesel for extreme emergency situations such as multiple, simultaneous trips of generators,” Eskom said.

Eskom has previously warned that load-shedding will increase over the next six to 12 months as it attempts to clear a backlog of maintenance at most power stations. 

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