SA will not meet NDP goals by 2030, says ANC

The ANC has confirmed that SA will not meet the targets set out in National Development Plan (NDP) by 2030.

The head of the ANC’s economic transformation subcommittee, Mmamoloko Kubayi, said low economic growth and the Covid-19 pandemic have made it difficult to attain the NDP targets.

Kubayi was briefing journalists about the contents of the party’s economic transformation policy discussion document, which was published last week and will be discussed at the party’s national policy conference in July.

She said the National Development Plan: Vision 2030 remained the party’s guiding programme for accelerated socioeconomic transformation in SA, with the aim of achieving shared prosperity for all.

“Admittedly, low rates of economic growth over the past decade, and the Covid-19 [pandemic] have made it harder to achieve the targets set by the NDP.

“In terms of geopolitics, the shift in manufacturing to Asia has resulted in trade wars over the past decade, which seem likely to change the direction of globalisation fundamentally in the next 10 years.

“Growth in China, SA’s largest single national export partner, has slowed, with unpredictable implications for export prices,” she said.

The ANC was, however, still committed to pursuing its economic goals within the framework of a mixed economy, wherein the public and private sectors have roles to play, she said.

This means that the government will continue with the effort to rebuild state corporations and expand the state capacity in the economy so that, if necessary, it will be able to make economic interventions that facilitate the growth and development of the economy, said Kubayi.

She said that, in drafting the document, there was a recognition of the need for new proposals that should build on the foundation established among social partners in the development and implementation of the Economic Recovery and Reconstruction Plan.

Kubayi said the ANC’s main long-term targets have to reflect the needs of the people and, through democratic discussions, the party should identify priority goals that it wishes to achieve during the current phase of the national democratic revolution.

“As the NDP’s goals for economic transformation by 2030 are clearly not being achieved, it would be important to reset our time frames and refocus on our key economic goals,” she said.

This could include achieving the following by 2035:

• An increase in the employment ratio (the share of adults with employment), which was less than 40% in 2021;
• A doubling in the number of small formal businesses, including farms, with black ownership of commercial farm land rising and increasing the share of black-owned formal businesses;
• An increase in the minimum wage in real terms per year, and an increase in union density of formal workers, which was about 35% in 2019;
• An increase in the share of young people aged 18-25 with matric to increase their employability; and
• An increase in the share of women employed in the formal sector, which, at 40% in 2019, is still disproportionate to the population of women.

She said this will be achieved by implementing a series of interventions in a range of key economic policy areas, including minerals and energy; infrastructure; manufacturing; the digital economy and the fourth industrial revolution; green economy; economic development and job creation; land reform; agricultural policy, food security and the rural economy; skills revolution; and supporting small businesses.