SA fuels Omicron hope by dodging hospitalisation surge

SA’s surge in Covid-19 cases after the emergence of the Omicron variant hasn’t overwhelmed hospitals so far, prompting cautious optimism that the new strain may cause mostly mild illness.

Initial data from SA, the epicentre of the outbreak of the Omicron variant, is “a bit encouraging regarding the severity”, Anthony Fauci, US President Joe Biden’s chief medical adviser, said on Sunday. At the same time he cautioned that it’s too early to be definitive.

Scientists and public-health officials are scouring available data to try to predict Omicron’s effect as many questions about the new strain and its multiple mutations remain unanswered. The variant, now dominant in SA, has made its way from Tokyo to Oslo since its discovery was announced on November 25. 

The scramble for clarity has led to sometimes conflicting messages about how serious a threat Omicron represents.

Moderna’s president Stephen Hoge on Sunday said there’s a clear risk that existing vaccines will be less effective against Omicron, though it’s too early to say by how much. Other vaccine developers last week expressed optimism that the shots may retain some efficacy against severe illness.

While the early link between infections and hospitalisations may look encouraging, there also tends to be a time lag between the two occurrences. 

Severe symptoms in patients who contracted earlier variants typically developed between one and three weeks after they were diagnosed, according to the National Institute for Communicable Diseases. The seven-day moving average of daily new cases in the country rose to 10,055 last week, from less than 300 three weeks earlier.

Governments around the world, which had hoped for a return to normalcy after two years of pandemic struggles, responded to the new strain by swiftly clamping down on travel. 

The UK will require all travellers to take a test within 48 hours of their flight, regardless of their vaccination status. France has tightened testing requirements for visitors from outside the EU. Germany’s Angela Merkel, in her last podcast as chancellor, pleaded with people to take the virus seriously and get vaccinated.

Omicron has sparked concern that it could evade vaccine-induced protection and frustrate efforts to reopen economies because it shows 30 or more changes in the spike protein, which the virus uses to lever its way into cells. But several more weeks may elapse before laboratory testing and real-life studies begin to untangle exactly what the mutations mean. 

In another encouraging sign, the Steve Biko and Tshwane District Hospital complex in Pretoria said most patients in the Covid-19 wards didn’t require oxygen. That marks a departure from previous waves. 

Fauci said the Biden administration is re-evaluating the travel ban on eight Southern African countries as more information becomes available. New York City recorded three more cases of the mutation, which has popped up in at least 11 US states. Omicron cases linked to a corporate Christmas party in Oslo may rise to as many as 100, a Norwegian broadcaster reported over the weekend.

Bloomberg
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