ANC wins Gauteng by a nose
The seat allocation in Gauteng will determine if it has received enough votes to get the 37 seats needed to govern with a majority, but this is likely
The ANC has held on to Gauteng by the skin of its teeth, receiving just above 50% of the vote following two days of vote counting to determine who will govern SA’s economic hub.
The seat allocation in the province will determine whether it has received enough votes to get the 37 seats needed to govern with a majority in the Gauteng, but this is likely if it is determined that 58,000 votes equal one seat.
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The provincial legislature has 73 seats, and a party or coalition will need 37 seats to govern with a majority.
Gauteng was one of the main battlegrounds in the 2019 elections where opposition parties were hoping to push the ANC below 50% of support, given the extraordinary electoral decline it saw since the 2014 general elections.
The decline continued during the local government elections in 2016 where the ANC fell below the majority of support in Gauteng.
Result for the provincial vote for Gauteng in the 2019 general elections
The decline in support for the ANC under the leadership of former president Jacob Zuma was enormous, while the party also had to deal with extreme opposition to the e-tolling system, as well as the death of more than 140 psychiatric patients in the Life Esidimeni scandal, which was the biggest blight on former premier David Makhura’s administration.
In 2016, the ANC in Gauteng could only achieve 45.84% of support, while the DA received 37.23% of the support during the local government elections.
Most prominently the ANC lost the majority of support in all three of the metros. It narrowly clung to power in Ekurhuleni via a coalition, but lost control of Johannesburg and Tshwane to a minority DA-led coalition government.
Despite growing its support significantly from 2016 levels, the ANC still lost votes in the province from the previous general elections in 2014, falling from 53.59% of the vote to 50.19%
The DA was unable to hang on to the high level of support it received during the local government elections, and also fell compared with the support it received in 2014 — 30.78% to 27.45%.
The EFF grew from 10.30% in 2014 to 14.69%.
It also grew from the 2016 level of support when it received 11.35% of the vote.
The FF Plus, which is now the fourth-biggest party in the province, tripled its vote in the province. The DA had bled votes to the FF Plus in the election, which was clearly seen in the Gauteng results. It grew its share from 1.2% to 3.56% of the vote.