IEC elections results centre in Pretoria. Picture: GCIS
IEC elections results centre in Pretoria. Picture: GCIS

With almost a third of votes counted, the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) has projected an ANC victory with 57.3% of the vote, followed by the DA with 21.5% and the EFF with 9.7%.

In the past, the government scientific research body has projected the end result accurately at an early stage in the counting using a predictive model that projects results received to similar areas where results are outstanding.

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Both the ANC and the DA are set to get a lower proportion of the vote than in the 2014 election in which the ANC won 62.1% and the DA 22.1%. The growth of the EFF to 10.34% from 6.35% in 2014 is significant but has been largely contained by the ANC.

Earlier opinion polls had the EFF doubling its support since the last election.

Danger lurks for the ANC in Gauteng, which the CSIR projects will come just short of an absolute majority with 49.47%. The ANC is still the largest party by far but a coalition government in the province seems inevitable. It would, however, have an array of partners to choose from and could cobble together an alliance with smaller parties to get over the line.

Alternatively, it has the EFF (projected to win 13.98%) or the DA (28.45%) to choose from.

In the Western Cape the DA will be home safe with 55.92% close to what it achieved in 2014 but a significant drop from the 63.6% it won in the municipal elections in 2016.

The CSIR projected a voter turnout of 63.11%, which would be a significant drop from the turnout of 73.48% in the 2014 general elections.

Correction: May 9 2019

In an earlier version of this story, we used preliminary CSIR data, we have now replaced it with the CSIR’s current projections.

patonc@businesslive.co.za