The ANC will win Gauteng if its support stays at the same level found in its own polling, which was concluded in the past month.

Gauteng is seen as the key battleground in the 2019 general elections on May 8, as opposition parties hope to push the ANC below the majority of support in the province, which is the single largest contributor to SA’s GDP. 

This is according to a survey conducted on behalf of the ANC in Gauteng in March and April, in which 1,826 respondents were surveyed face-to-face. The sample’s margin of error is given as 2.3%.

It is understood that the ANC polled at 52% among registered voters — if people who won’t vote and those who do not know who they will vote for are included. The DA polled at 16% of the provincial vote, while the EFF received 10%. 

If the voters who will not vote and say none of the parties deserve their votes are removed from the equation, the ANC, however, polls at 56%, which would mean it could possibly increase its vote from 2014 levels, in which it received 53.5% of the provincial vote.

The DA’s support is polled at 17% on calculations that do not include voters who will note vote and say none of the parties deserve their votes; while the EFF is said to be at 11% of the provincial vote against the same parameters. That would mean that the DA takes a knock from its 2014 numbers in which it received 30.78%, while the EFF grows its support.

Twenty-seven percent of respondents strongly agree with the statement that the DA does not care about poor black people, while 20% agreed, 26% remained neutral, 15% disagreed and 12% strongly disagreed. Eighteen percent of respondents strongly agreed that the EFF has a realistic manifesto, while 16% agreed. 25% were neutral, 20% disagreed and 21% strongly disagreed.

The three biggest parties were all seen as being divisive, with 20% of respondents saying the ANC is dividing South Africans, while 21% saw the DA as playing that role; the EFF was seen as divisive by 27% of respondents.

The ANC was seen by the vast majority of respondents as being soft on corruption, with 59% of respondents associating the party with that sentiment; 67% of respondents said the ANC has disappointed them.

The data comes on the back of the release of the SA Institute of Race Relations’ (IRR) most recent polling data on Tuesday, which has placed the ANC in a far worse position than its internal polling.

According to the IRR, the ANC currently stands on 42.8% on the provincial ballot, up 1.2 percentage points from February (41.6%). On a 70.4% turnout scenario, support for the party decreases to 39%. On a 67.7% turnout scenario, it also decreases to 39%.

The DA’s internal polling was also leaked on Tuesday. In a report published by News24 on Tuesday, the party’s numbers last week Monday placed the ANC at 44%, down from 48% in its previous polls. News24 said the DA’s support was at 38%, up from 34%.