Oil slips as Iran affirms commitment to nuclear treaty
News that the US is preparing to nuclear talks with Iran ‘considerably eases the threat of a fresh outbreak of hostilities’, says Vanda Insights
04 July 2025 - 07:44
byMohi Narayan
Support our award-winning journalism. The Premium package (digital only) is R30 for the first month and thereafter you pay R129 p/m now ad-free for all subscribers.
New Delhi — Oil futures fell on Friday after Iran reaffirmed its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation and amid the expectation that major producers are set to agree to raise their output this weekend.
Brent crude futures were down 22c, or 0.32%, to $68.58 a barrel by 4.45am GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 12c, or 0.18%, to $66.88.
Trade was thinned by the US Independence Day holiday.
US news website Axios reported on Thursday that the US was planning to meet Iran next week to restart nuclear talk, while Iran foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran remained committed to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
“Thursday’s news that the US is preparing to resume nuclear talks with Iran, and Araqchi’s clarification that co-operation with the UN atomic agency has not been halted considerably eases the threat of a fresh outbreak of hostilities,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.
Araqchi’s comments came a day after Tehran enacted a law suspending co-operation with the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.
“But the price correction may have to wait till Monday, when the US reopens from a long weekend and takes in Sunday’s Opec+ decision, which is likely to be another 411,000 barrels a day [bbl/day] target hike in August,” Hari said.
Opec+, the world’s largest group of oil producers, was set to announce an increase of 411,000bbl/day in production for August as it looked to regain market share, four delegates from the group told Reuters.
Meanwhile, uncertainty over US tariff policies was renewed as the end of a 90-day pause on higher levy rates approaches.
Washington will start sending letters to countries on Friday specifying what tariff rates they will face on goods sent to the US, a clear shift from earlier pledges to strike scores of individual trade deals.
President Donald Trump told reporters before departing for Iowa on Thursday that the letters would be sent to 10 countries at a time, laying out tariff rates of 20%-30%.
Trump’s 90-day pause on higher US tariffs ends on July 9, and several large trading partners have yet to clinch trade deals, including the EU and Japan.
The US imposed sanctions on Thursday against a network that smuggled Iranian oil disguised as Iraqi oil and on a Hezbollah-controlled financial institution, the treasury department said.
Saudi Arabian defence minister Prince Khalid bin Salman met Trump and other officials at the White House, however, to discuss de-escalation efforts with Iran, media reports said.
Trump also said on Thursday that he would meet representatives of Iran “if necessary”.
Separately, Barclays said it raised its Brent oil price forecast by $6 to $72 a barrel for 2025 and by $10 to $70 a barrel for 2026 on an improved outlook for demand.
Support our award-winning journalism. The Premium package (digital only) is R30 for the first month and thereafter you pay R129 p/m now ad-free for all subscribers.
Oil slips as Iran affirms commitment to nuclear treaty
News that the US is preparing to nuclear talks with Iran ‘considerably eases the threat of a fresh outbreak of hostilities’, says Vanda Insights
New Delhi — Oil futures fell on Friday after Iran reaffirmed its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation and amid the expectation that major producers are set to agree to raise their output this weekend.
Brent crude futures were down 22c, or 0.32%, to $68.58 a barrel by 4.45am GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 12c, or 0.18%, to $66.88.
Trade was thinned by the US Independence Day holiday.
US news website Axios reported on Thursday that the US was planning to meet Iran next week to restart nuclear talk, while Iran foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran remained committed to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
“Thursday’s news that the US is preparing to resume nuclear talks with Iran, and Araqchi’s clarification that co-operation with the UN atomic agency has not been halted considerably eases the threat of a fresh outbreak of hostilities,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.
Araqchi’s comments came a day after Tehran enacted a law suspending co-operation with the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.
“But the price correction may have to wait till Monday, when the US reopens from a long weekend and takes in Sunday’s Opec+ decision, which is likely to be another 411,000 barrels a day [bbl/day] target hike in August,” Hari said.
Opec+, the world’s largest group of oil producers, was set to announce an increase of 411,000bbl/day in production for August as it looked to regain market share, four delegates from the group told Reuters.
Meanwhile, uncertainty over US tariff policies was renewed as the end of a 90-day pause on higher levy rates approaches.
Washington will start sending letters to countries on Friday specifying what tariff rates they will face on goods sent to the US, a clear shift from earlier pledges to strike scores of individual trade deals.
President Donald Trump told reporters before departing for Iowa on Thursday that the letters would be sent to 10 countries at a time, laying out tariff rates of 20%-30%.
Trump’s 90-day pause on higher US tariffs ends on July 9, and several large trading partners have yet to clinch trade deals, including the EU and Japan.
The US imposed sanctions on Thursday against a network that smuggled Iranian oil disguised as Iraqi oil and on a Hezbollah-controlled financial institution, the treasury department said.
Saudi Arabian defence minister Prince Khalid bin Salman met Trump and other officials at the White House, however, to discuss de-escalation efforts with Iran, media reports said.
Trump also said on Thursday that he would meet representatives of Iran “if necessary”.
Separately, Barclays said it raised its Brent oil price forecast by $6 to $72 a barrel for 2025 and by $10 to $70 a barrel for 2026 on an improved outlook for demand.
Reuters
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.
Most Read
Published by Arena Holdings and distributed with the Financial Mail on the last Thursday of every month except December and January.