Oil slides as US tariffs on China take hold

Singapore/Beijing — Oil prices dropped to their lowest in more than four years on Wednesday on looming demand concerns fuelled by an escalating tariff war between the US and China, the world’s two biggest economies, and a rising supply outlook.

Brent futures lost $2.38, or 3.79%, to $60.44 a barrel by 4.23am GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $2.46, or 4.13%, to $57.12. Both contracts touched their lowest level since February 2021.

The six-month spread for Brent slumped to 79c, its lowest level since mid-November, as the market was seen moving into a potential surplus. The spread has collapsed 86% from a high of $5.69 on January 15 that reflected tightening supply and expectations of a revival in Chinese demand.

Both Brent and WTI have tumbled over the five consecutive sessions since US President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on most imports, sparking concern a global trade war would dent economic growth and hit fuel demand.

Trump’s 104% tariffs on China kicked in from 4.01am GMT on Wednesday, adding 50% more to tariffs after Beijing failed to lift its retaliatory tariffs on US goods by a noon deadline on Tuesday set by Trump.

Beijing vowed not to bow to what it called US blackmail after Trump threatened the additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods if the country did not lift its 34% retaliatory levy.

“China’s aggressive retaliation diminishes the chances of a quick deal between the world’s two biggest economies, triggering mounting fears of economic recession across the globe,” said Ye Lin, vice-president of oil commodity markets at Rystad Energy.

“China’s 50,000-100,000 barrels a day [bbl/day] of oil demand growth is at risk if the trade war continues for longer, however, a stronger stimulus to boost domestic consumption could mitigate the losses,” she said.

Worsening oil’s decline was a decision last week by Opec+, which groups together oil cartel Opec and allies including Russia, to hike output in May by 411,000bbl/day, a move that analysts say is likely to push the market into surplus.

Goldman Sachs now forecasts that Brent and WTI could edge down to $62 and $58 per barrel by December 2025 and to $55 and $51 per barrel by December 2026.

As oil prices sank, Russia’s ESPO Blend oil price fell below the $60 a barrel Western price cap level for the first time ever on Monday.

In one positive sign for demand, data from the American Petroleum Institute industry group showed US crude inventories fell by 1.1-million barrels in the week ended April 4, compared with expectations in a Reuters poll for a build of about 1.4-million barrels.

Official inventory data from the Energy Information Administration is due on Wednesday at 2.30pm GMT.

Reuters