Markets seem to be relieved for now that things are not worse amid Trump-fuelled uncertainty
06 February 2025 - 07:30
byStephen Culp and Rae Wee
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A man passes by an electronic screen displaying Japan’s Nikkei share average. Picture: REUTERS/ISSEI KATO
New York/Singapore — Asian shares rose on Thursday, tracking gains on Wall Street after a see-saw session, while US treasury yields came under pressure after mixed economic data.
European stock futures pointed to solid gains later in the day, extending their rally from the previous session in part due to a surge in healthcare stocks as sales of Novo Nordisk’s blockbuster drug Wegovy more than doubled in the fourth quarter.
Though many uncertainties remain under US President Donald Trump’s new administration, markets were for now relieved that things were not worse, particularly with regard to the tit-for-tat tariff moves between the US and its major trading partners.
That helped lift global share markets and kept the dollar in check, giving some respite to its peers which had been heavily battered at the start of the week.
“Relief is probably a good way to characterise [the market mood],” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ.
“Also in respect to China, even though the tariffs have officially come into force since Tuesday and China has sort of retaliated, but the retaliation from the Chinese side is very measured.”
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on Thursday again set a stronger-than-expected yuan midpoint fixing, countering concerns it might allow the currency to slide to offset the effect of tariffs on the country’s exports.
That kept the onshore yuan steady around 7.2766 to the dollar, while its offshore counterpart rose 0.07% to 7.2778.
China’s CSI300 blue-chip index reversed early losses to trade slightly higher, while the Shanghai Composite index gained 0.13%.
“Chinese authorities at this stage are not indicating or showing any intention of weakening the yuan as part of the response to the tariffs. I think that has definitely helped to calm the market down,” said Goh.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan advanced 0.28%, while Japan’s Nikkei tacked on 0.28%.
Nasdaq futures ticked up 0.04%, while S&P 500 futures rose 0.09%.
All three major US stock indices closed in positive territory on Wednesday, but the tech-heavy Nasdaq’s nominal gain was held in check by disappointing earnings from Alphabet, which fuelled doubts about the payoff of investments in AI.
Rates outlook
US treasury yields were hovering near their lowest in over a month on Thursday, as investors pondered the outlook for rates in the world’s largest economy.
Federal Reserve vice-chair Philip Jefferson on Wednesday said he was content to keep the central bank’s policy rate in its current position until policymakers get a better sense of the net effects of the Trump administration’s policies on tariffs, immigration, deregulation and taxes.
Traders weighed his comments against mixed US economic data releases which showed a stronger-than-expected pickup in ADP’s private payrolls data but a surprise deceleration in the services sector. Record high imports also pushed the US trade deficit sharply wider.
The benchmark 10-year treasury yield was last little changed at 4.4201%, while the two-year yield edged slightly higher to 4.1889%.
Futures point to just over 45 basis points worth of easing from the Fed by the year-end.
In currencies, the dollar was on the back foot.
“The central vibe running through trade has been the solid bid in US treasuries, with the US dollar finding increased selling flows across the G10 FX complex,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.
Against the dollar, the euro hovered above the $1.03 level and last bought $1.0398, while sterling held near a one-month high and was fetching $1.24995.
The Bank of England announces its rate decision later on Thursday where it looks set to deliver a rate cut.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, languished near its lowest in over a week at 107.61.
The yen, meanwhile, rose 0.3% to 152.11 per dollar, helped by comments from Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura who said the central bank should raise short-term interest rates to at least 1% by the second half of fiscal 2025 to contain inflation risks.
In commodities, oil prices rose, steadying from a sell-off the previous day after Saudi Arabia’s state oil company sharply raised March oil prices.
US crude edged 0.32% higher to $71.27 a barrel, while Brent crude rose 0.23% to $74.78.
Gold resumed its rally to firm near a record peak, and was last at $2,869.62/oz.
“Gold is one of three things: it’s an inflation hedge, it’s a dollar hedge or it’s a disaster hedge,” said Paul Nolte, senior wealth adviser and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest in Elmhurst, Illinois.
“For much of the last five or six years, I would say gold was a dollar hedge. Now it has become more of a hedge against things going wrong.”
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Asian shares follow firmer Wall Street
Markets seem to be relieved for now that things are not worse amid Trump-fuelled uncertainty
New York/Singapore — Asian shares rose on Thursday, tracking gains on Wall Street after a see-saw session, while US treasury yields came under pressure after mixed economic data.
European stock futures pointed to solid gains later in the day, extending their rally from the previous session in part due to a surge in healthcare stocks as sales of Novo Nordisk’s blockbuster drug Wegovy more than doubled in the fourth quarter.
Though many uncertainties remain under US President Donald Trump’s new administration, markets were for now relieved that things were not worse, particularly with regard to the tit-for-tat tariff moves between the US and its major trading partners.
That helped lift global share markets and kept the dollar in check, giving some respite to its peers which had been heavily battered at the start of the week.
“Relief is probably a good way to characterise [the market mood],” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ.
“Also in respect to China, even though the tariffs have officially come into force since Tuesday and China has sort of retaliated, but the retaliation from the Chinese side is very measured.”
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on Thursday again set a stronger-than-expected yuan midpoint fixing, countering concerns it might allow the currency to slide to offset the effect of tariffs on the country’s exports.
That kept the onshore yuan steady around 7.2766 to the dollar, while its offshore counterpart rose 0.07% to 7.2778.
China’s CSI300 blue-chip index reversed early losses to trade slightly higher, while the Shanghai Composite index gained 0.13%.
“Chinese authorities at this stage are not indicating or showing any intention of weakening the yuan as part of the response to the tariffs. I think that has definitely helped to calm the market down,” said Goh.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan advanced 0.28%, while Japan’s Nikkei tacked on 0.28%.
Nasdaq futures ticked up 0.04%, while S&P 500 futures rose 0.09%.
All three major US stock indices closed in positive territory on Wednesday, but the tech-heavy Nasdaq’s nominal gain was held in check by disappointing earnings from Alphabet, which fuelled doubts about the payoff of investments in AI.
Rates outlook
US treasury yields were hovering near their lowest in over a month on Thursday, as investors pondered the outlook for rates in the world’s largest economy.
Federal Reserve vice-chair Philip Jefferson on Wednesday said he was content to keep the central bank’s policy rate in its current position until policymakers get a better sense of the net effects of the Trump administration’s policies on tariffs, immigration, deregulation and taxes.
Traders weighed his comments against mixed US economic data releases which showed a stronger-than-expected pickup in ADP’s private payrolls data but a surprise deceleration in the services sector. Record high imports also pushed the US trade deficit sharply wider.
The benchmark 10-year treasury yield was last little changed at 4.4201%, while the two-year yield edged slightly higher to 4.1889%.
Futures point to just over 45 basis points worth of easing from the Fed by the year-end.
In currencies, the dollar was on the back foot.
“The central vibe running through trade has been the solid bid in US treasuries, with the US dollar finding increased selling flows across the G10 FX complex,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.
Against the dollar, the euro hovered above the $1.03 level and last bought $1.0398, while sterling held near a one-month high and was fetching $1.24995.
The Bank of England announces its rate decision later on Thursday where it looks set to deliver a rate cut.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, languished near its lowest in over a week at 107.61.
The yen, meanwhile, rose 0.3% to 152.11 per dollar, helped by comments from Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura who said the central bank should raise short-term interest rates to at least 1% by the second half of fiscal 2025 to contain inflation risks.
In commodities, oil prices rose, steadying from a sell-off the previous day after Saudi Arabia’s state oil company sharply raised March oil prices.
US crude edged 0.32% higher to $71.27 a barrel, while Brent crude rose 0.23% to $74.78.
Gold resumed its rally to firm near a record peak, and was last at $2,869.62/oz.
“Gold is one of three things: it’s an inflation hedge, it’s a dollar hedge or it’s a disaster hedge,” said Paul Nolte, senior wealth adviser and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest in Elmhurst, Illinois.
“For much of the last five or six years, I would say gold was a dollar hedge. Now it has become more of a hedge against things going wrong.”
Reuters
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