Oil prices steady with focus on Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire
Both benchmarks settled lower on Tuesday after Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire deal
27 November 2024 - 07:28
byYuka Obayashi and Emily Chow
Support our award-winning journalism. The Premium package (digital only) is R30 for the first month and thereafter you pay R129 p/m now ad-free for all subscribers.
Tokyo — Oil prices steadied on Wednesday, with markets assessing the potential impact of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah, and ahead of Sunday’s Opec+ meeting of producers.
Brent crude futures rose 5c to $72.86 a barrel by 4.15am GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 3c at $68.80 a barrel.
Both benchmarks settled lower on Tuesday after Israel agreed to a ceasefire deal with Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
US President Joe Biden said on Tuesday that a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah would take affect on Wednesday, after both sides accepted an agreement brokered by the US and France.
The accord cleared the way for an end to a conflict across the Israeli-Lebanese border that has killed thousands of people since it was ignited by the Gaza war.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he was ready to implement the deal with Lebanon and would “respond forcefully to any violation” by Hezbollah.
“Market participants are assessing whether the ceasefire will be observed,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, a unit of Nissan Securities.
“We expect WTI to trade within the range of $65-$70 a barrel, factoring in weather conditions during the northern hemisphere’s winter, a potential increase in shale oil and gas production under the incoming Donald Trump administration in the US, and demand trends in China,” he said.
On Opec+, sources said the group was discussing a further delay to a planned oil output hike that was due to start in January, ahead of a December 1 meeting to decide policy for early 2025.
The group pumps about half the world’s oil and had planned to gradually roll back oil-production cuts with small increases over many months in 2024 and 2025. But a slowdown in Chinese and global demand, and rising output outside the group, have put a dampener on that plan.
“Our long-standing base case has been that Opec+ defers the tapering of output cuts all the way through 2025,” Citi Research analysts said in a note, adding that the tapering could start in April instead of January.
“From the producer group’s point of view, holding off the unwind could allow the market the chance to be more balanced, via supply disruptions or more resilient demand, while bringing barrels back makes lower prices a foregone conclusion.”
In the US, president-elect Donald Trump said he would impose a 25% tariff on all products coming into the US from Mexico and Canada. Crude oil would not be exempt from the trade penalties, sources told Reuters on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, US crude oil stocks fell while fuel inventories rose last week, market sources said, citing API figures on Tuesday.
Crude stocks fell by 5.94-million barrels in the week ended November 22, exceeding analysts' forecast of a drop of about 600,000 barrels.
Support our award-winning journalism. The Premium package (digital only) is R30 for the first month and thereafter you pay R129 p/m now ad-free for all subscribers.
Oil prices steady with focus on Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire
Both benchmarks settled lower on Tuesday after Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire deal
Tokyo — Oil prices steadied on Wednesday, with markets assessing the potential impact of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah, and ahead of Sunday’s Opec+ meeting of producers.
Brent crude futures rose 5c to $72.86 a barrel by 4.15am GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 3c at $68.80 a barrel.
Both benchmarks settled lower on Tuesday after Israel agreed to a ceasefire deal with Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
US President Joe Biden said on Tuesday that a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah would take affect on Wednesday, after both sides accepted an agreement brokered by the US and France.
The accord cleared the way for an end to a conflict across the Israeli-Lebanese border that has killed thousands of people since it was ignited by the Gaza war.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he was ready to implement the deal with Lebanon and would “respond forcefully to any violation” by Hezbollah.
“Market participants are assessing whether the ceasefire will be observed,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, a unit of Nissan Securities.
“We expect WTI to trade within the range of $65-$70 a barrel, factoring in weather conditions during the northern hemisphere’s winter, a potential increase in shale oil and gas production under the incoming Donald Trump administration in the US, and demand trends in China,” he said.
On Opec+, sources said the group was discussing a further delay to a planned oil output hike that was due to start in January, ahead of a December 1 meeting to decide policy for early 2025.
The group pumps about half the world’s oil and had planned to gradually roll back oil-production cuts with small increases over many months in 2024 and 2025. But a slowdown in Chinese and global demand, and rising output outside the group, have put a dampener on that plan.
“Our long-standing base case has been that Opec+ defers the tapering of output cuts all the way through 2025,” Citi Research analysts said in a note, adding that the tapering could start in April instead of January.
“From the producer group’s point of view, holding off the unwind could allow the market the chance to be more balanced, via supply disruptions or more resilient demand, while bringing barrels back makes lower prices a foregone conclusion.”
In the US, president-elect Donald Trump said he would impose a 25% tariff on all products coming into the US from Mexico and Canada. Crude oil would not be exempt from the trade penalties, sources told Reuters on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, US crude oil stocks fell while fuel inventories rose last week, market sources said, citing API figures on Tuesday.
Crude stocks fell by 5.94-million barrels in the week ended November 22, exceeding analysts' forecast of a drop of about 600,000 barrels.
Reuters
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.
Most Read
Published by Arena Holdings and distributed with the Financial Mail on the last Thursday of every month except December and January.