But prices remain close to lowest in two weeks after Opec downgrades its forecast for demand growth in 2024 and 2025
13 November 2024 - 07:56
byColleen Howe and Jeslyn Lerh
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Singapore — Oil prices edged up on Wednesday on signs of near-term supply tightness but remained near their lowest in two weeks, a day after Opec downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025.
Brent futures rose 17c, or 0.24%, to $72.06 a barrel by 4.20am GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 14c, or 0.21%, at $68.26.
“Crude oil prices edged higher as tightness in the physical market offset bearish sentiment on demand. Buyers in the physical market have been particularly active, with any available cargoes being snapped up quickly,” ANZ analysts said in a note.
But falling demand projections and weakness in major consumer China continued to weigh on market sentiment.
“We may expect prices to consolidate around current levels for longer,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG, adding the recent attempt for a bounce was quickly sold into.
“The absence of a more direct fiscal stimulus out of China has been casting a shadow on oil demand outlook, coupled with the prospects of higher US oil production with a Trump presidency and looming Opec+'s plans for an output raise,” Yeap said.
In its monthly report on Tuesday, oil cartel Opec said world oil demand would rise by 1.82-million barrels a day (bbl/day) in 2024, down from growth of 1.93-million barrels a day forecast last month, mostly due to weakness in China, the world’s biggest oil importer.
Oil prices settled up 0.1% on Tuesday after the news, after falling by about 5% during the two previous sessions.
Opec also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54-million barrels a day from 1.64-million barrels a day.
The International Energy Agency, which has a far lower view, is set to publish its updated forecast on Thursday.
“The re-election of former president Trump is unlikely to materially affect oil market fundamentals over the near term, in our view,” Barclays analysts wrote.
“Drill, baby, drill: this is likely to underwhelm as a strategy to drive oil prices materially lower over the near term” given that the stock of approved permits actually rose under the Biden administration, the analysts said.
However, markets would still feel the effects of a supply disruption from Iran or a further escalation between Iran and Israel, according to Barclays.
Donald Trump’s expected secretary of state pick, US Senator Marco Rubio, is known for his hardline stance on Iran, China and Cuba. Tighter enforcement of sanctions on Iran could disrupt global oil supply, while a tougher approach to China could further weaken oil demand in the world’s largest consumer.
Two US central bankers said on Tuesday that interest rates were acting as a brake on inflation that was still above the 2% mark, suggesting that the Federal Reserve would be open to further interest rate cuts.
The Fed cut its policy rate last week by a quarter of a percentage point to the 4.50%-4.75% range. Interest rate cuts typically boost economic activity and energy demand.
US weekly inventory reports have been delayed by a day after Monday's Veterans Day holiday. The American Petroleum Institute industry group data is due at 9.30pm GMT on Wednesday.
Analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories rose by about 100,000 barrels in the week to November 8.
Support our award-winning journalism. The Premium package (digital only) is R30 for the first month and thereafter you pay R129 p/m now ad-free for all subscribers.
Oil slightly firmer on tight supply
But prices remain close to lowest in two weeks after Opec downgrades its forecast for demand growth in 2024 and 2025
Singapore — Oil prices edged up on Wednesday on signs of near-term supply tightness but remained near their lowest in two weeks, a day after Opec downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025.
Brent futures rose 17c, or 0.24%, to $72.06 a barrel by 4.20am GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 14c, or 0.21%, at $68.26.
“Crude oil prices edged higher as tightness in the physical market offset bearish sentiment on demand. Buyers in the physical market have been particularly active, with any available cargoes being snapped up quickly,” ANZ analysts said in a note.
But falling demand projections and weakness in major consumer China continued to weigh on market sentiment.
“We may expect prices to consolidate around current levels for longer,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG, adding the recent attempt for a bounce was quickly sold into.
“The absence of a more direct fiscal stimulus out of China has been casting a shadow on oil demand outlook, coupled with the prospects of higher US oil production with a Trump presidency and looming Opec+'s plans for an output raise,” Yeap said.
In its monthly report on Tuesday, oil cartel Opec said world oil demand would rise by 1.82-million barrels a day (bbl/day) in 2024, down from growth of 1.93-million barrels a day forecast last month, mostly due to weakness in China, the world’s biggest oil importer.
Oil prices settled up 0.1% on Tuesday after the news, after falling by about 5% during the two previous sessions.
Opec also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54-million barrels a day from 1.64-million barrels a day.
The International Energy Agency, which has a far lower view, is set to publish its updated forecast on Thursday.
“The re-election of former president Trump is unlikely to materially affect oil market fundamentals over the near term, in our view,” Barclays analysts wrote.
“Drill, baby, drill: this is likely to underwhelm as a strategy to drive oil prices materially lower over the near term” given that the stock of approved permits actually rose under the Biden administration, the analysts said.
However, markets would still feel the effects of a supply disruption from Iran or a further escalation between Iran and Israel, according to Barclays.
Donald Trump’s expected secretary of state pick, US Senator Marco Rubio, is known for his hardline stance on Iran, China and Cuba. Tighter enforcement of sanctions on Iran could disrupt global oil supply, while a tougher approach to China could further weaken oil demand in the world’s largest consumer.
Two US central bankers said on Tuesday that interest rates were acting as a brake on inflation that was still above the 2% mark, suggesting that the Federal Reserve would be open to further interest rate cuts.
The Fed cut its policy rate last week by a quarter of a percentage point to the 4.50%-4.75% range. Interest rate cuts typically boost economic activity and energy demand.
US weekly inventory reports have been delayed by a day after Monday's Veterans Day holiday. The American Petroleum Institute industry group data is due at 9.30pm GMT on Wednesday.
Analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories rose by about 100,000 barrels in the week to November 8.
Reuters
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