Asian shares slip, while bitcoin surfs Trump wave

Singapore — Asian stocks eased while the dollar held at four-month highs on Tuesday, though all the excitement was centred on bitcoin as it soared to a record peak underpinned by investor bets on assets that are likely to benefit from Donald Trump’s election win.

Investors expect Trump’s second four-year term in office to bring equities-boosting tax cuts and looser regulations, lifting the world’s biggest and best-known cryptocurrency, bitcoin, to a record high of $89,637.

But the threat of possible tariffs from the new White House administration has put the euro under pressure, with the single currency touching near seven-month lows of $1.0687 overnight. It was last at $1.0658 in Asian hours on Tuesday.

The dollar, on the other hand, is expected to benefit from some of the policies that are likely to keep US interest rates relatively higher for longer. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six peers, was at 105.57, just shy of the four-month high hit on Monday.

Vasu Menon, MD of investment strategy at OCBC, said the decisive win by Trump and the Republican party removed the overhang of an unclear or a contested US election outcome.

“The medium-term outlook could become cloudier if Trump pursues aggressive tariff hikes.... This could fuel inflation eventually and stop the Fed from cutting rates. Tariffs also carry the risk of retaliation from the major trading partners.

“But this is a story for another time and Trump’s victory has unleashed the animal spirit in markets for now,” Menon said.

Data provider DDHQ projected on Monday that Trump’s Republican Party had won a majority in the US House of Representatives, signalling a majority for Republicans in both chambers of Congress.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 1%, with Taiwan shares sliding 2% and South Korean stocks 1% lower.

Chip stocks in the region have been reeling this week after Reuters reported that the US ordered Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co to halt shipments of advanced chips to Chinese customers that are often used in AI applications.

Japan’s Nikkei was an outlier in the region and was up 0.5% on a weak yen, which was hovering close to more than three-month lows and last fetched ¥153.93 to the dollar.

Overnight, Wall Street’s main indices notched record high closes, with Tesla gaining about 9% after touching $1-trillion in market value on Friday on bets that the carmaker would benefit from CEO Elon Musk’s backing of Trump.

Trump’s victory and the election of pro-crypto candidates to Congress have supercharged a bitcoin rally to record highs closer to $90,000, and targeting $100,000 next. It was last at $88,709.

“After such a performance, one could ask whether the Trump trades are already played out? Our take is ‘No’, as we think these trades still have plenty more legs,” said Manish Kabra, lead US equities & multi-asset strategist at Societe Generale in a note.

Meanwhile, Chinese shares inched higher, while Hong Kong stocks slid 1%. Sentiment remained largely downbeat after Beijing's latest stimulus package failed to deliver the direct spending aimed at consumers that investors have been expecting.

On the macro side, investor focus will be on US consumer price index data on Wednesday, with a parade of Federal Reserve speakers also due to speak this week, including Fed chair Jerome Powell on Thursday.

Markets are pricing in 87% chance of the Fed cutting rates in December by 25 basis points (bps).

In commodities, oil prices were little changed in early trading as China’s stimulus plan and oversupply concerns took the wind out of markets in prior sessions.

Brent crude futures was at $71.88 a barrel, up 0.06% while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures inched 0.09% higher to $68.10 a barrel.

Spot gold was steady in Asian hours at $2,624/oz after touching its lowest level in a month on Monday.

Reuters