Prices slip on the expectation for higher Opec+ production from October and signs of sluggish demand in China and the US
02 September 2024 - 07:45
by Florence Tan
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Singapore — Oil prices extended losses on Monday on the expectation for higher Opec+ production starting in October and as signs of sluggish demand in China and the US, the world’s two largest oil consumers, raised concerns about future consumption growth.
Brent crude futures fell 61, or 0.8%, to $76.32 a barrel by 4.50am GMT while US West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 52c, or 0.7%, to $73.03 a barrel.
The losses followed a 0.3% decline for Brent last week and a 1.7% drop for WTI.
Oil cartel Opec and allies, a group known as Opec+, is set to proceed with a planned oil output hike from October, six sources from the producer group told Reuters.
Eight Opec+ members are scheduled to boost output by 180,000 barrels a day (bbl/day) in October, as part of a plan to begin unwinding their most recent layer of output cuts of 2.2-million barrels a day while keeping other cuts in place until end-2025.
“There are concerns that Opec will go ahead and increase output from October,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said.
“However, I think that outcome is price dependent in that it happens if the WTI price is closer to $80 than $70.”
Both Brent and WTI have posted losses for two consecutive months as the US and Chinese demand concerns have outweighed recent disruptions in Libyan oil supply amid a dispute between government factions there and the tension in the key Middle East producing region related to the Israel-Gaza conflict.
While Libyan exports remain halted, the Arabian Gulf Oil Company has resumed output at up to 120,000bbl/day to meet domestic needs, engineers said on Sunday, after the standoff between the factions shut most of the country’s oilfields.
More pessimism about Chinese demand growth surfaced after an official survey showed on Saturday that manufacturing activity there sank to a six-month low in August as factory gate prices tumbled and owners struggled for orders, though a private survey on Monday which covers more export-orientated companies showed signs of a tentative recovery in August.
“The softer-than-expected China PMI [purchasing managers index] released over the weekend heightens concerns that the Chinese economy will miss growth targets,” Sycamore said.
In the US, oil consumption slowed in June to the lowest seasonal levels since the coronavirus pandemic of 2020, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Friday.
“We see downside in growth in 2025, driven by economic headwinds in China and the US,” ANZ analysts said in a note.
“We believe Opec will have no choice but to delay the phase out of voluntary production cuts if it wants higher prices.”
The number of operating US oil rigs were unchanged at 483 last week, Baker Hughes said in its weekly report.
Support our award-winning journalism. The Premium package (digital only) is R30 for the first month and thereafter you pay R129 p/m now ad-free for all subscribers.
Weak Chinese data weighs on oil
Prices slip on the expectation for higher Opec+ production from October and signs of sluggish demand in China and the US
Singapore — Oil prices extended losses on Monday on the expectation for higher Opec+ production starting in October and as signs of sluggish demand in China and the US, the world’s two largest oil consumers, raised concerns about future consumption growth.
Brent crude futures fell 61, or 0.8%, to $76.32 a barrel by 4.50am GMT while US West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 52c, or 0.7%, to $73.03 a barrel.
The losses followed a 0.3% decline for Brent last week and a 1.7% drop for WTI.
Oil cartel Opec and allies, a group known as Opec+, is set to proceed with a planned oil output hike from October, six sources from the producer group told Reuters.
Eight Opec+ members are scheduled to boost output by 180,000 barrels a day (bbl/day) in October, as part of a plan to begin unwinding their most recent layer of output cuts of 2.2-million barrels a day while keeping other cuts in place until end-2025.
“There are concerns that Opec will go ahead and increase output from October,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said.
“However, I think that outcome is price dependent in that it happens if the WTI price is closer to $80 than $70.”
Both Brent and WTI have posted losses for two consecutive months as the US and Chinese demand concerns have outweighed recent disruptions in Libyan oil supply amid a dispute between government factions there and the tension in the key Middle East producing region related to the Israel-Gaza conflict.
While Libyan exports remain halted, the Arabian Gulf Oil Company has resumed output at up to 120,000bbl/day to meet domestic needs, engineers said on Sunday, after the standoff between the factions shut most of the country’s oilfields.
More pessimism about Chinese demand growth surfaced after an official survey showed on Saturday that manufacturing activity there sank to a six-month low in August as factory gate prices tumbled and owners struggled for orders, though a private survey on Monday which covers more export-orientated companies showed signs of a tentative recovery in August.
“The softer-than-expected China PMI [purchasing managers index] released over the weekend heightens concerns that the Chinese economy will miss growth targets,” Sycamore said.
In the US, oil consumption slowed in June to the lowest seasonal levels since the coronavirus pandemic of 2020, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Friday.
“We see downside in growth in 2025, driven by economic headwinds in China and the US,” ANZ analysts said in a note.
“We believe Opec will have no choice but to delay the phase out of voluntary production cuts if it wants higher prices.”
The number of operating US oil rigs were unchanged at 483 last week, Baker Hughes said in its weekly report.
Reuters
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