Worry about Chinese demand weighs on oil

Singapore — Oil prices fell on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session, amid concerns about demand in China, the world's largest crude importer, while the market shrugged off the risk of conflict escalating in the Middle East.

Brent crude oil futures fell by 32c, or 0.4%, to $79.46 a barrel by 3.20am GMT. US crude futures were down 36c, or 0.5%, at $75.45 a barrel.

A raft of disappointing economic news out of China has shaken markets recently. China’s manufacturing activity likely shrank for a third month in July, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.

Also on Monday, Citi cut China’s growth forecast to 4.8% from 5% after the country’s second-quarter growth missed analyst estimates, noting that economic activity softened further in July.

“We believe the market has a stronger downside bias in the short term, weighed by continuing slack domestic demand from China, as well as potential output restoration by some Opec+ members in Q4,” said Emril Jamil, a senior analyst at LSEG Oil Resarch, referring to oil cartel Opec and allies led by Russia.

“Tariff tensions with Europe and the US will also influence Chinese crude demand going forward,” Jamil said.

The market is watching an upcoming meeting of China’s top decision-making body, the Politburo, expected to take place this week, that could elicit further economic policy support.

But expectations are limited after the Third Plenum, a key policy meeting in mid-July, largely reiterated existing economic policy goals and failed to lift market sentiment.

Oil fell 2% in the previous trading session after Israel signalled that its response to a Hezbollah rocket strike in Golan Heights on Saturday would be calculated to avoid dragging the Middle East into an all-out war.

That was reinforced by a US diplomatic push, reported by Reuters on Monday, to constrain Israel’s response and prevent it from striking either the Lebanon capital of Beirut or any major civilian infrastructure in retaliation.

In Venezuela, the opposition said it had won 73% of the vote, despite the national electoral authority having declared incumbent Nicolas Maduro the winner of the election, giving him a third term in office.

“Nicolas Maduro’s victory in the latest Venezuelan election is a headwind for global supply, as this could result in tighter US sanctions,” ANZ analysts said in a note, estimating that could cut Venezuela's exports by 100,000-120,000 barrels a day.

Governments in Washington and elsewhere cast doubt on the results and called for a full tabulation of votes, and protesters gathered in towns and cities across Venezuela on Monday.

Reuters