Attack on Republican presidential contender may have tipped scales in favour of his return to White House
14 July 2024 - 17:45
UPDATED 14 July 2024 - 23:15
byTom Westbrook and Vidya Ranganathan
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Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump reacts after gunfire rang out during a campaign rally at the Butler Farm Show in Butler, Pennsylvania on Saturday. Picture: REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
Singapore — Saturday’s shooting at former US president Donald Trump’s election rally raises his chances of winning, and trades betting on his victory will rise this week, say investors.
A bullet hit Trump’s right ear during the rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday. Authorities are treating it as an assassination attempt. Trump, his face spattered with blood, pumped his fist just after the attack. His campaign said he was fine.
Before the shooting, markets reacted to the prospect of a Trump presidency by pushing the dollar higher and positioning for a steeper US treasury yield curve. Those trades may strengthen this week, said Rong Ren Goh, a portfolio manager in the fixed-income team at Eastspring Investments, Singapore.
The first shooting of a US president or major party candidate since a 1981 assassination attempt on Republican president Ronald Reagan could upend the November 5 rematch between Republican Trump and Democrat President Joe Biden, which has been tight in opinion polls.
“The election is likely to be a landslide. This probably reduces uncertainty,” said Nick Ferres, chief investment officer at Vantage Point Asset Management, citing polls that showed a surge in support for Reagan after the 1981 assassination attempt.
World leaders and US politicians condemned the shooting. Some industry chiefs, including Tesla CEO Elon Musk, declared their support for Trump.
Since a shaky performance against Trump in a presidential debate two weeks ago, Biden has faced growing doubts from donors, supporters and fellow Democrats about his ability to beat Trump.
Immigration and the economy are the main issues for US voters. Reuters/Ipsos polls show that they see Trump as the better candidate for the economy though Biden’s White House seeks to benefit from a solid economy with inflation slowing and unemployment low.
From Trump, market analysts expect a more hawkish trade policy, less regulation and looser climate change regulations. Investors also expect an extension of corporate and personal tax cuts expiring next year, fuelling concern about rising budget deficits under Trump.
Trump has said he will not reappoint Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. Longer-end treasury yields have risen with the odds of a second Trump administration.
Stock prices have been rising. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average indices hit record highs on Friday and the S&P 500 is up 18% this year.
Goldman Sachs analysts said a Trump victory “could boost the earnings outlooks for some firms even without substantial policy changes”.
Support our award-winning journalism. The Premium package (digital only) is R30 for the first month and thereafter you pay R129 p/m now ad-free for all subscribers.
Markets bet on Trump election win after shooting
Attack on Republican presidential contender may have tipped scales in favour of his return to White House
Singapore — Saturday’s shooting at former US president Donald Trump’s election rally raises his chances of winning, and trades betting on his victory will rise this week, say investors.
A bullet hit Trump’s right ear during the rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday. Authorities are treating it as an assassination attempt. Trump, his face spattered with blood, pumped his fist just after the attack. His campaign said he was fine.
Before the shooting, markets reacted to the prospect of a Trump presidency by pushing the dollar higher and positioning for a steeper US treasury yield curve. Those trades may strengthen this week, said Rong Ren Goh, a portfolio manager in the fixed-income team at Eastspring Investments, Singapore.
EXPLAINER: What we know about Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected Trump rally shooter
The first shooting of a US president or major party candidate since a 1981 assassination attempt on Republican president Ronald Reagan could upend the November 5 rematch between Republican Trump and Democrat President Joe Biden, which has been tight in opinion polls.
“The election is likely to be a landslide. This probably reduces uncertainty,” said Nick Ferres, chief investment officer at Vantage Point Asset Management, citing polls that showed a surge in support for Reagan after the 1981 assassination attempt.
World leaders and US politicians condemned the shooting. Some industry chiefs, including Tesla CEO Elon Musk, declared their support for Trump.
Since a shaky performance against Trump in a presidential debate two weeks ago, Biden has faced growing doubts from donors, supporters and fellow Democrats about his ability to beat Trump.
Immigration and the economy are the main issues for US voters. Reuters/Ipsos polls show that they see Trump as the better candidate for the economy though Biden’s White House seeks to benefit from a solid economy with inflation slowing and unemployment low.
From Trump, market analysts expect a more hawkish trade policy, less regulation and looser climate change regulations. Investors also expect an extension of corporate and personal tax cuts expiring next year, fuelling concern about rising budget deficits under Trump.
Trump has said he will not reappoint Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. Longer-end treasury yields have risen with the odds of a second Trump administration.
Stock prices have been rising. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average indices hit record highs on Friday and the S&P 500 is up 18% this year.
Goldman Sachs analysts said a Trump victory “could boost the earnings outlooks for some firms even without substantial policy changes”.
Reuters
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