Gold faces a dim quarter as dollar shines

Gold was mostly quiet on Thursday, but faced its worst quarter since early 2021, as a remarkable showing from the dollar kept investors away, with bullion’s outlook clouded by top central banks adopting aggressive tactics against stubborn inflation.

Spot gold was flat at $1,817.07/oz by 3.39am GMT. US gold futures edged up 0.1% to $1,819.70. Gold prices, set to drop for a third straight month, have fallen about 6.2% this quarter.

A combination of rising yields and the US dollar have played their part in gold’s underperformance, City Index senior market analyst Matt Simpson said, but noted that gold priced in other currencies hadn’t performed too badly.

The US dollar hovered near recent two-decade peaks, and could record its best quarter in over five years, making gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.

Bringing down high inflation around the world will be painful and could even crash growth, but must be done quickly to prevent rapid price growth from becoming entrenched, the world’s top central bank chiefs said on Wednesday. Higher bond yields and interest rate hikes by central banks to fight inflation raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion, which yields no interest.

Bullion’s performance in the second quarter erases gains made earlier in the year as a spiralling Ukraine-Russia conflict lifted demand for the safe haven, with prices back around levels from the beginning of 2022 — just above $1,800.

Looking forward, the bias will become increasingly bearish as rate hikes continue to come through and bring down inflation expectations, Ilya Spivak, a currency strategist at DailyFX said, adding that $1,780-$1,790 is a critical support level.

Spot silver was up 0.1% at $20.72/oz, platinum was flat at $916.66, and palladium gained 1.2% to $1,986.21. However, they were all still headed for monthly and quarterly losses.

Reuters