Oil climbs on expectation Opec will hold back output increase

Melbourne/Singapore — Oil prices climbed on Tuesday, extending a rebound from last week’s plunge on growing expectations producers would pause plans to add crude supply in January amid uncertainty over the severity of the Omicron coronavirus variant.

Brent crude futures climbed 43c, or 0.6%, to $73.91 a barrel at 4.18am GMT after gaining 1% on Monday. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures jumped 73c, or 1%, to $70.68 a barrel, adding to a 2.6% rise on Monday.

Oil plunged about 12% on Friday along with other markets on fears the heavily mutated Omicron would spark fresh lockdowns and dent global growth.

The World Health Organization said on Monday Omicron posed a high risk of infection surges, and several countries stepped up travel curbs. It is still unclear how severe the new variant is and whether it can resist existing vaccines.

With the demand outlook under a cloud, expectations are growing that oil cartel Opec will put on hold plans to add 400,000 barrels a day of supply in January.

“We think the group will lean towards pausing output hikes in light of the Omicron variant and the oil stockpile release by major oil consumers,” Commonwealth Bank commodities analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note.

Pressure was already growing within Opec, due to meet on December 2, to reconsider its supply plan after last week’s release of emergency crude reserves by the US and other major oil-consuming nations to address soaring prices.

“Following the global strategic reserve releases and the announcement of dozens of countries restricting travel to and from SA and neighbouring nations, Opec and its allies can easily justify an output halt or even a slight cut in production,” Oanda analyst Edward Moya said in a note.

Still, Citi analysts expects Opec to continue to add more barrels in January.

“Citi calculates that Opec actual monthly additions have averaged 262,000 barrels a day rather than 400,000, given the inability of so many Opec countries to produce up at the level of their benchmarks as they have lost capacity for lack of investment,” the bank said in a note.

“The discrepancy means that withholding that amount would be largely meaningless in the global supply/demand balance for oil.”

Also weighing on the market is the prospect of a resumption of oil exports from Iran, after upbeat comments from diplomats as talks resumed on Monday between world powers and Iran on reviving a nuclear pact.

Reuters