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The JSE will likely trade higher on Thursday, taking its cue from the global markets, which showed signs of stability after a tumultuous month.

Asian share markets were mostly higher, but Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dipped 0.66%. The rand, which is a proxy of risk-on sentiment, also gained but remained above the R15/$ mark.

Commodity prices also bounced back, despite angst about the slowing growth in China, which is the top consumer of raw minerals.

The so-called reflation trade took a big knock in September as worries over the strength of the global economic recovery took centre stage, hitting commodity prices and mining shares in particular. Reflation trade refers to a recovery in the global economy, this time from the effects of Covid-19.

The JSE is headed for its worst monthly decline since late October, with the all share having declined 4% so far in September, with the damage coming mostly from commodity shares. The resource 10 index was down 15% in September, according to Bloomberg data.

However, the big industrial shares have held up reasonably well on the month, as have banks and financials. Shares of MTN and Aspen, which fall under the industrial sector, are hovering at multiyear highs, indicating the disparate performance on the local market.

Elsewhere, the spot price of Brent crude cooled off on the day, but was up about 6% on a month. Brent crude fetched $78.30 a barrel, while the rand was up 0.21% to R15.13/$.

Investec chief economist Annabel  Bishop said the recent spike in oil prices was boosted by the decline of Delta Covid-19 infections in a number of key oil importing countries, and the resultant expectations of a pickup in demand, though supply is tight. 



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