London — A week after oil cartel Opec agreed to keep oil production restrained until early next year, the group’s first forecasts for 2020 showed it faces an even longer and tougher challenge.

Opec, which pumps 40% of the world’s oil, estimated that it is producing about 560,000 barrels per day (bpd) more than will be needed next year as the ongoing surge in US shale threatens to deliver another surplus. Supplies from producers outside the cartel will grow by more than twice as much as global oil demand, it forecast...

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