London/Houston— Four months ago, Saudi Arabia’s devotion to its decades-old oil partnership with the US was stronger than ever. US President Donald Trump was poised to choke off crude exports from the kingdom’s political nemesis, Iran. And the Saudis, shunned by other nations after the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, were readily obliging the White House with record supplies. But the Trump administration stunned Riyadh by softening its crackdown on Iran at the last minute, allowing many customers to continue buying and triggering a crash in oil prices. Since then, the Saudis’ trust in their main political ally has frayed. When the kingdom meets with allied oil producers in the Azeri capital of Baku this weekend, that sense of betrayal may loom large in its decision-making. “The way the Saudis were misled by the US president concerning Iran sanctions is something that they can still taste,” said Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup in New York. Although Trump has...

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