Electric cars could reach 24% EU market share by 2025

Battery-electric cars (BEVs) sold in the EU are set to reach a market share of between 20% and 24% by 2025, mostly because of cheaper selling prices, campaign group Transport & Environment (T&E) said on Tuesday.

EV sales in the EU have slowed in recent months — to a 14% market share in the first half of the year — in part due to diverging policies on green incentives across the bloc, while regulators, seeking to protect EU industry, have imposed hefty tariffs on Chinese cars.

Germany, the EU’s largest EV market, in September introduced incentives to speed up the green transition.

T&E, which in June forecast a 21% share for 2025, expects sales will pick up.

It said its new projections took into account the expected arrival in 2024 and 2025 of seven new fully electric models priced under €25,000 (R490,189), accounting for 10%-15% of the BEV market in 2025.

BEVs should contribute about 60% of the carbon dioxide (CO₂) reduction carmakers require to achieve EU emissions targets in 2025, while hybrid options could contribute 20% of emission reductions, it said.

Facing a drop in EV demand and increased competition from cheaper Chinese rivals, European manufacturers have urged EU legislators to activate a crisis clause that would postpone their CO₂ targets by two years.

T&E said legislators should resist moves to weaken or delay 2025-2030 targets and electrification should be underpinned by robust national policies.

“The lead enjoyed by Chinese EV makers only shows the longer the EU protects its laggard carmakers the less competitive they will be”, T&E said.

Carmakers such as Stellantis, Toyota, Renault and Mercedes-Benz have adjusted their electrification targets downward.

Reuters