ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: First PMIs of 2025, and Mantashe to lead Mining Indaba
Absa to detail how the manufacturing sector performed in January as mining industry leaders meet in Cape Town
02 February 2025 - 18:51
byJana Marx
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The first local economic data for 2025 will be released this week.
The week begins with the Absa purchasing managers’ index (PMI) on Monday offering a snapshot of how the manufacturing sector performed in January.
“The PMI was volatile through most of 2024 (but so was the official production data) and pointed to a loss of momentum in activity towards the end of the year,” says Lisette IJssel de Schepper from the Bureau for Economic Research.
December’s Absa PMI showed a decline in manufacturing activity with the seasonally adjusted index dropping 1.9 points to 46.2, marking a second consecutive monthly decline.
The slowdown was largely due to the holiday season and widespread business closures, which typically weigh on manufacturing output.
The PMI is a key leading indicator of economic health, particularly for the manufacturing sector, which contributes about 13% of GDP.
S&P Global will publish its latest PMI data on Wednesday, offering further insights into the SA private sector.
S&P Global’s December PMI slipped to 49.9 from 50.9 in November, signalling the first contraction in business activity in four months.
The weakness was widespread, with the construction sector declining the most in output and sales while the services sector reported a modest increase in new work.
“The hope is that the January PMI reflects some renewed growth, with the same hope for the S&P Global PMI,” IJssel de Schepper said.
From Monday to Friday, SA will participate in the 2025 Investing in African Mining Indaba in Cape Town. The event is the world’s largest gathering of leaders in the mining industry and investors.
This year’s discussions at the indaba, under the theme “Future-proofing African Mining Today!”, are expected to focus on technological advancements, inclusive growth and the importance of sustainability. In doing so, they aim to ensure that the African mining industry remains competitive and resilient in the global market.
Minister of mineral & petroleum resources Gwede Mantashe will lead the delegation.
On Friday, the latest data on official gold and foreign exchange reserves will be released.
SA’s gross foreign exchange reserves fell slightly to $65.459bn in December, down from $65.859bn in November, which had marked the highest level since records began in 1998.
Nedbank economists forecast that reserves will rise to $66.29bn in January, “driven mainly by a rise in the value of gold reserves”.
“During the month, gold reserves increased by about 5.5%, reflecting valuation adjustments as the gold price continued to benefit from its safe-haven status. Foreign exchange reserves accumulation is also expected to have increased marginally by 0.5% month on month,” they added.
Another key data release on Friday is the SA Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci) business confidence index for December.
A resurgence in tourism and an uptick in metal prices pushed the index to a nine-year high in November as sentiment in Africa’s most industrialised economy continues to benefit from the formation of a government of national unity (GNU).
The index reached 118.1 points, the highest since October 2015 and up from 114.2 in the previous month.
The December figure will provide insight into whether this upward trend in sentiment has continued.
Support our award-winning journalism. The Premium package (digital only) is R30 for the first month and thereafter you pay R129 p/m now ad-free for all subscribers.
ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: First PMIs of 2025, and Mantashe to lead Mining Indaba
Absa to detail how the manufacturing sector performed in January as mining industry leaders meet in Cape Town
The first local economic data for 2025 will be released this week.
The week begins with the Absa purchasing managers’ index (PMI) on Monday offering a snapshot of how the manufacturing sector performed in January.
“The PMI was volatile through most of 2024 (but so was the official production data) and pointed to a loss of momentum in activity towards the end of the year,” says Lisette IJssel de Schepper from the Bureau for Economic Research.
December’s Absa PMI showed a decline in manufacturing activity with the seasonally adjusted index dropping 1.9 points to 46.2, marking a second consecutive monthly decline.
The slowdown was largely due to the holiday season and widespread business closures, which typically weigh on manufacturing output.
The PMI is a key leading indicator of economic health, particularly for the manufacturing sector, which contributes about 13% of GDP.
S&P Global will publish its latest PMI data on Wednesday, offering further insights into the SA private sector.
S&P Global’s December PMI slipped to 49.9 from 50.9 in November, signalling the first contraction in business activity in four months.
The weakness was widespread, with the construction sector declining the most in output and sales while the services sector reported a modest increase in new work.
“The hope is that the January PMI reflects some renewed growth, with the same hope for the S&P Global PMI,” IJssel de Schepper said.
From Monday to Friday, SA will participate in the 2025 Investing in African Mining Indaba in Cape Town. The event is the world’s largest gathering of leaders in the mining industry and investors.
This year’s discussions at the indaba, under the theme “Future-proofing African Mining Today!”, are expected to focus on technological advancements, inclusive growth and the importance of sustainability. In doing so, they aim to ensure that the African mining industry remains competitive and resilient in the global market.
Minister of mineral & petroleum resources Gwede Mantashe will lead the delegation.
On Friday, the latest data on official gold and foreign exchange reserves will be released.
SA’s gross foreign exchange reserves fell slightly to $65.459bn in December, down from $65.859bn in November, which had marked the highest level since records began in 1998.
Nedbank economists forecast that reserves will rise to $66.29bn in January, “driven mainly by a rise in the value of gold reserves”.
“During the month, gold reserves increased by about 5.5%, reflecting valuation adjustments as the gold price continued to benefit from its safe-haven status. Foreign exchange reserves accumulation is also expected to have increased marginally by 0.5% month on month,” they added.
Another key data release on Friday is the SA Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci) business confidence index for December.
A resurgence in tourism and an uptick in metal prices pushed the index to a nine-year high in November as sentiment in Africa’s most industrialised economy continues to benefit from the formation of a government of national unity (GNU).
The index reached 118.1 points, the highest since October 2015 and up from 114.2 in the previous month.
The December figure will provide insight into whether this upward trend in sentiment has continued.
marxj@businesslive.co.za
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