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A container ship anchored off Bloubergstrand. Picture: unsplash.com/Hennie Stander
A container ship anchored off Bloubergstrand. Picture: unsplash.com/Hennie Stander

Business in SA is still navigating choppy waters, with trade conditions still under severe pressure. Yet there is mounting optimism about what lies ahead in 2025, the latest trade conditions survey from the SA Chamber of Commerce & Industry (Sacci) shows.

“The survey (conducted in December) suggests that though some structural economic impediments may be resolved, the poor economic performance at present is preventing trade from reaching its more optimal potential,” Sacci said in a statement.

In December, only 35% of respondents reported favourable trade activity.

Despite this, optimism for the months ahead is rising: 65% of survey respondents expect trade conditions to improve over the next six months, up from 54% in October 2024.

“Of course, the festive season spirit could have played a part here, but there’s also a growing sense that the economy is beginning to recover,” independent economist Richard Downing told Business Day.

According to the survey, one major hurdle is supply chain disruption caused by rail and sea transport issues, which have made meeting demand increasingly difficult.

These logistical challenges highlight structural weaknesses in the trade sector that require urgent attention.

Sacci noted that the difference of 26 index points between present supply deliveries and expected deliveries reflected these logistical problems.

Input costs eased slightly, with the index dropping nine points from October to December, offering some temporary relief. At the same time, sales prices rose by a modest two points from November to December.

However, inflationary pressures on input costs and sales prices are expected to rise again, potentially complicating monetary policy as the Reserve Bank balances its cautious approach with rising inflation expectations.

Despite the challenging trade environment and tight profit margins, employment in the sector remained relatively stable. In November, 45% of respondents reported employing staff, dropping slightly to 41% in December.

Encouragingly, 57% of respondents plan to hire more people in the next six months.

marxj@businesslive.co.za

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